{
  "id": 9087439,
  "title": "Worried about an AI apocalypse? Here’s how to think about the risk of doom",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/22/worried-about-an-ai-apocalypse-heres-how-to-think-about-the-risk-of",
  "topic": "ai",
  "section": "AI",
  "published": "2026-09-22T05:00:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "New Scientist",
    "slug": "new-scientist",
    "url": "https://www.newscientist.com/article/2590164-worried-about-an-ai-apocalypse-heres-how-to-think-about-the-risk-of-doom/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The question of whether artificial intelligence could bring about the end of humanity is one that has recently gained mainstream attention. However, the chances of an AI-induced apocalypse, or p(doom), are not a scientific question that can be given a meaningful probability. Leading AI commentators have offered estimates ranging from 0 to over 95 percent, spanning the entire probability spectrum and offering no concrete answers. This uncertainty should not be taken as a reason to disregard the possibility entirely. Instead, it may be helpful to compare the AI apocalypse risk with other, more tangible risks.\n\nFor example, the odds of winning the UK National Lottery are approximately 1 in 4.9 percent, meaning most players lose. In contrast, the chances of dying in a road traffic collision are around 0.01 percent, but we still take precautions like wearing seatbelts and looking both ways when crossing the road. Climate change, a more complicated global risk, cannot be reduced to a simple probability due to its continuous nature and future-dependent outcome. However, using climate models, scientists have estimated the likelihood of exceeding certain temperature thresholds by 2100, with a 20 percent chance of surpassing 3°C of warming under current policies.\n\nA better comparison might be the threat of an asteroid impact. NASA estimates that we have discovered more than 90 percent of asteroids larger than 1 kilometre, making their future positions highly predictable. Such impacts occur once every 600,000 years, with a 140-metre threshold asteroid (often called a \"city killer\") striking Earth approximately every 20,000 years. Although the risk is reassuring due to our ability to anticipate these events, the potential for devastation cannot be understated.\n\nLastly, we can draw parallels between AI risks and the COVID-19 pandemic. In recent history, pandemics have had catastrophic consequences, with the 1918 flu killing an estimated 50 million people. While the risk of a deadly virus is not quantifiable, as our experience with COVID-19 demonstrates, we can still take preventive measures, such as vaccinations and social distancing. In light of the uncertainty surrounding AI and its potential for global devastation, it is essential to approach the issue with vigilance and develop strategies to mitigate the risk.",
  "summary": "Commentators say the probability of machines wiping us out ranges from 0 to over 95 per cent. Columnist Jacob Aron explains why you shouldn't trust any of those numbers",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}