{
  "id": 8917682,
  "title": "Dax-Sentiment: Überbordender Optimismus der Anleger wird zur Gefahr für den Aktienmarkt",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/21/dax-sentiment-uberbordender-optimismus-der-anleger-wird-zur-gefahr",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-21T12:23:22.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Handelsblatt",
    "slug": "handelsblatt",
    "url": "https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/anlagestrategie/trends/dax-umfrage-ueberbordender-optimismus-wird-zur-gefahr-fuer-den-aktienmarkt/100256082.html"
  },
  "original_language": "de",
  "account": "In recent weeks, the German benchmark index Dax has experienced a three-week decline. However, investors' long-term optimism, as evidenced by the latest Handelsblatt Dax-Sentiment survey, suggests that these expectations may be fulfilled in the short term. Analyst Jörg Scherer from HSBC Deutschland predicts that after three consecutive weeks of losses, the weekly average performance of the Dax will increase by a factor of 2.5 to 0.49 percent. On Monday, the index already dropped, but Stephan Heibel, CEO of the analysis house AnimusX, remains skeptical about the extreme optimism displayed by investors. He warns that the \"extremely high optimism is dangerous\" and that investors are failing to recognize the risks. The Handelsblatt surveys over 10,000 private investors every Friday morning until Saturday evening to gauge their market assessment. Heibel analyzes the responses and combines them with additional indicators. When the investor sentiment (sentiment) falls below minus four points, it indicates \"fear and panic\" among survey participants. In the previous week, the sentiment was at minus 5.0. After two weeks of losses, each amounting to two percent in the Dax, the market shock is no longer surprising investors, as the weekly decline is only \"one percent.\" Heibel attributes this to the challenging market environment caused by rising interest rates, higher energy prices, and discussions about potential AI regulation. Despite falling stock prices, investors are becoming increasingly optimistic, with future expectations rising from 2.2 in the previous week to the extreme value of 4.2. This is the highest value since September 2024. Forty-two percent of respondents now expect the Dax to trend upward over the next three months. Investor readiness for investment stands at a record high of 2.1 points. However, previous values have exceeded the three-point threshold when measured before. Heibel sees this as a sign that a majority of investors are already invested and have weathered recent losses in anticipation of rising prices. Historically, similar developments have occurred during market corrections, according to the sentiment expert: \"In general, I have repeatedly observed during market corrections that investor sentiment falls to a low point very quickly, while future expectations remain surprisingly robust.\" If investors ignore the weak market conditions, Heibel predicts that it will be dangerous, as the immediate jumping on the optimism of investors at falling prices means they only see a buying opportunity without any reason for the price declines. Rising interest rates and oil prices have changed the market environment. In the past three years, investor sentiment was usually correct, with the technology rally driving the market and other sectors following suit. Heibel believes the fundamental difference lies in the significantly higher interest rate environment and increased energy prices. He fears that investors are underestimating the dangers: \"In line with successful behavioral patterns in the past, this market setback will be immediately viewed as a buying opportunity by investors.\" For the correction to end, he believes investors need to adequately account for the changed circumstances: \"Based on these survey results, that does not appear to be the case yet.\"",
  "summary": "Die Börsenkurse sind drei Wochen gefallen. Trotzdem werden Anleger immer optimistischer. Das ist ein gelerntes Verhalten aus den vergangenen Jahren. Doch das Marktumfeld ist nicht dasselbe.",
  "key_points": [
    "Dax index declined three weeks, but investor optimism remains high",
    "HSBC analyst predicts 2.5x weekly Dax performance increase to 0.49%",
    "Extreme optimism may be dangerous, warns AnimusX CEO Stephan Heibel"
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}