{
  "id": 890887,
  "title": "Canada: Core softness guides BoC path – TD Securities",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/14/canada-core-softness-guides-boc-path-td-securities",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-08-14T15:53:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "FXStreet",
    "slug": "fxstreet",
    "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-core-softness-guides-boc-path-td-securities-202608141553"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "TD Securities’ Robert Both anticipates Canadian headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) to reach 2.9% year-on-year in July, driven by elevated gasoline and food prices. However, core measures of CPI-trim and CPI-median are anticipated to be around 1.85%, lower than Bank of Canada’s forecasts, suggesting a mild underlying inflation trend that favors a continued emphasis on core inflation instead of headline inflation driven by oil prices. Headline CPI is expected to increase by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9% year-on-year in July, with a 0.4% month-over-month rise, primarily due to higher gasoline prices following their decline in June. The July CPI report is also expected to validate a benign month for underlying inflation pressures, with CPI-trim/median and median inflation forecasts holding steady at 1.8/1.9% year-on-year or 1.6% on a three-month annualized basis. Furthermore, the ex. food/energy (FXE) measure is expected to remain stable at 1.7% year-on-year, while diffusion indicators for overall inflation pressures are not anticipated to exhibit any substantial increase. A 1.8/1.9% CPI-trim/median print would place core CPI slightly below the Bank of Canada's projections for the July MPR (2.0% over Q3), despite headline CPI exceeding BoC forecasts for 2.5%.",
  "summary": "TD Securities’ Robert Both expects Canadian headline CPI to rise to 2.9% year-on-year in July, driven by higher gasoline and food prices, while ex. food/energy components stay muted.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}