{
  "id": 8228779,
  "title": "Niche metals test West’s resilience to Chinese export curbs",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/18/niche-metals-test-wests-resilience-to-chinese-export-curbs",
  "topic": "business",
  "section": "Business",
  "published": "2026-09-18T10:45:01.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Investing.com",
    "slug": "investing-com",
    "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/niche-metals-test-wests-resilience-to-chinese-export-curbs-4907021"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Three years after China imposed export curbs on two niche metals crucial to the chipmaking, clean energy, and defence sectors, the West continues to grapple with the impact on prices and production. The restrictions on gallium and germanium have led Western companies to stockpile, seek alternative suppliers, and explore new designs and substitutes. However, the ultimate response is only now materialising, with several Western production projects announced in recent months aimed at breaking China's grip on the niche but vital market. Prices for these metals have surged to nine to ten times their 2023 levels, but they must arrive swiftly to meet demand.\n\nCompanies are increasingly diversifying their procurement strategies, turning to recycling, alternative suppliers, and emerging non-China projects where feasible. The AI boom, expanding fiber-optic networks, and growing use of infrared imaging are driving up demand. Gallium demand is projected to increase by approximately 12% annually through 2030, while global germanium demand is expected to grow by 3.3% per year over the same period. Despite these projections, China still accounts for nearly 99% of primary gallium supply and 69% of germanium supply, indicating minimal progress in reducing China's dominance in the market.\n\nSubstitutes for these metals do exist, but replacing them often necessitates redesigns, making it a challenging task. While some Western companies have managed to switch to substitutes in certain applications, reducing germanium usage by half over the past 18 months, the shift is far from seamless. The challenges of transitioning to alternatives, such as indium phosphide, zinc selenide, silicon, and chalcogenide glass, are significant and require substantial technological adjustments.\n\nStockpiling is another response to the shortages. Some customers are purchasing germanium before designs are finalized to ensure availability when production begins. Recycling is also being explored by US-based Lattice Materials, which uses germanium to produce crystals for displays in military equipment. By boosting germanium recovery, Lattice Materials aims to maintain stable supply levels in the near term, with prices expected to remain high or continue rising.\n\nBelgium's Umicore is collaborating with STL, a unit of Gécamines, to enhance germanium recovery from mining waste in the Democratic Republic of Congo. As the race for new supply intensifies, some producers admit they are already struggling to keep up with the growing demand. In Greece, METLEN is moving towards pilot-scale production of gallium, targeting 50 tons annually by 2028, but current demand already surpasses this target. Australia and the US have pledged over $3.5 billion to support critical minerals projects, including gallium and germanium, nearly doubling the initial amount agreed upon last year.\n\nWhile emerging projects with government support offer hope for greater diversification, industry experts acknowledge that matching China's scale will remain challenging. Nevertheless, a reduction in dependence on China is a realistic goal over the next five years, but eliminating dependence is a more ambitious target. Government support, such as price floors, may be necessary to ensure the long-term viability and success of new supply projects. By 2030, S&P Global estimates that eight announced projects could boost ex-China gallium supply to around 386 tons, but even this boost will leave about 65% of ex-China demand to be met from China. Similarly, new germanium projects in Canada, South Korea, and the United States are expected to lift ex-China refining capacity to 126 tons by 2030, covering only about 48% of projected ex-China demand.",
  "summary": null,
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}