{
  "id": 7800969,
  "title": "US Dollar: Fed pricing creates asymmetric risks – BBH",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/16/us-dollar-fed-pricing-creates-asymmetric-risks-bbh",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-16T13:38:14.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "FXStreet",
    "slug": "fxstreet",
    "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-fed-pricing-creates-asymmetric-risks-bbh-202609161338"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad highlights the US Dollar's support from risk aversion driven by energy concerns ahead of the FOMC decision. With markets already pricing in significant Fed tightening, Haddad notes that USD carries asymmetric risks. A hawkish outcome offers limited upside, while a dovish surprise poses a greater downside. He also emphasizes that present US economic conditions do not necessitate an aggressive tightening cycle. The USD has maintained its gains this week, spurred by energy-shock risk aversion. As the slump in bonds and stocks stabilizes, the overvaluation in crude oil prices loses momentum. Iran's motivation to intensify pressure ahead of the November 3 midterms and potentially impact Republicans is a cause for concern. Currently, all attention is on the upcoming FOMC decision at 7:00pm London and 2:00pm New York. The Fed is set to raise rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking its first increase since July 2023. Persistent inflation above targets and a steady labor market justify the rate hike. Fed funds futures indicate a 94% probability of a hike today. The vote split, Summary of Economic Projections, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference will influence market reaction. The swaps curve suggests nearly 100 basis points of tightening over the next year: 25 basis points today, another 25 basis points by year-end, and nearly 50 basis points by September 2027. This scenario presents an asymmetric risk for USD, with limited gains from a hawkish outcome but a greater downside risk from a dovish surprise. The US economy does not require an aggressive tightening cycle, according to Haddad. Wage growth deceleration acts as a disinflationary force, and Fed policy is already somewhat restrictive given a nominal neutral rate around 3.00%.",
  "summary": "Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad says the US Dollar (USD) remains supported by energy-driven risk aversion ahead of the FOMC decision.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 2,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "FXStreet",
        "title": "New Zealand Dollar: Growth risks temper RBNZ pricing – ING",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/16/new-zealand-dollar-growth-risks-temper-rbnz-pricing-ing",
        "published": "2026-09-16T11:30:58.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}