{
  "id": 7794337,
  "title": "Analysis: Global fossil-fuel emissions set to fall in 2026 amid Hormuz crisis",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/16/analysis-global-fossil-fuel-emissions-set-to-fall-in-2026-amid-hormuz",
  "topic": "science",
  "section": "Science",
  "published": "2026-09-16T13:34:02.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Carbon Brief",
    "slug": "carbon-brief",
    "url": "https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-fossil-fuel-emissions-set-to-fall-in-2026-amid-hormuz-crisis"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Fossil-fuel emissions are anticipated to decrease by approximately 0.5% in 2026 due to the impact of the Hormuz crisis, according to an analysis by Carbon Brief. The US-Iran conflict has disrupted trade through the Hormuz Strait, leading to increased oil and gas prices that have continued to affect the global economy. Each month of disruption and new flashpoints, like those in Yemen, intensifies the push for alternative energy sources. These alternatives include coal, with forecasts predicting a 1.2% increase in coal demand this year, which media outlets have linked to a \"return to coal\" following the crisis. Despite this rise, Carbon Brief's analysis indicates that the emissions associated with this coal use will be largely offset by declines in oil and gas emissions. The overall impact on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels in 2026 is projected to be a reduction of around 0.5% compared to 2025 levels. Fossil fuels make up two-thirds of global greenhouse gas emissions. The CO2 emissions estimates for each fossil fuel are based on the latest projections from the International Energy Agency (IEA) considering the ongoing global energy crisis. For instance, the IEA initially projected a decline in global coal demand this year, but its September 2026 update revealed a 1.2% rise in coal demand for 2026, contrary to the initially anticipated decline. This change is attributed to the surge in gas prices resulting from the Hormuz situation. However, there are constraints to this trend, as few nations can transition from gas to coal on a significant scale due to the high costs involved.",
  "summary": "Global fossil-fuel emissions are set to fall by around 0.5% in 2026 amid the fallout from the Hormuz crisis, according… The post Analysis: Global fossil-fuel emissions set to fall in 2026 amid Hormuz crisis appeared first on Carbon Brief .",
  "key_points": [
    "Global fossil-fuel emissions to fall by 0.5% in 2026",
    "Hormuz Strait crisis disrupts trade, raises oil and gas prices",
    "Coal demand forecast to rise by 1.2% in 2026"
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}