{
  "id": 7561230,
  "title": "US Dollar: FOMC scenarios guide Dollar reaction – TD Securities",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/15/us-dollar-fomc-scenarios-guide-dollar-reaction-td-securities",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-15T13:31:30.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "FXStreet",
    "slug": "fxstreet",
    "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-fomc-scenarios-guide-dollar-reaction-td-securities-202609151331"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "TD Securities' macro team anticipates the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) during the upcoming meeting, yet the dot plot suggests fewer hikes than what the market expects. Under this base case, the US Dollar may experience a short-term dip. However, a dovish shift in FOMC stance could see the USD return to pre-August CPI levels, while a more hawkish stance could prolong the recent USD rally. Chair Janet Yellen is expected to discuss the recent inflation data at the meeting, but is likely to refrain from providing forward guidance. The FOMC may, nonetheless, adopt a hawkish tone in their deliberations, signaling potential hikes along with optimistic projections for inflation and the labor market. Given that a 25bps rate increase is already priced into the market, the USD might face an immediate decline. Conversely, a rate hold would be a significant surprise from a dovish perspective and could revert the USD to its pre-August CPI level. The USD rally might have further room to grow if the dot plot indicates an October rate hike. Although TD Securities projects a 25bps hike, the dot plot could indicate a lower number of hikes than what the market anticipates. This disparity could cause the yield curve to steepen modestly, benefiting the US Dollar. The recent USD rally has room to extend if the dot plot suggests an October rate hike. With US bond yields near multi-year highs, driven by oil price inflation risks, the US Dollar continues to strengthen, exerting pressure on the AUD/USD pair, which is currently trading near an over three-week low. Likewise, USD/JPY is looking to escalate further towards the 155.00 mark, as market participants await the FOMC and Bank of Japan (BoJ) meetings. Gold prices have also retreated, trading around $4,260 per troy ounce, following another positive day for the US Dollar, along with mixed Treasury yields and cautious pre-Fed sentiment.",
  "summary": "TD Securities’ macro team, including Oscar Munoz and colleagues, expects the FOMC to deliver a 25bps hike, with the dot plot signaling fewer hikes than markets imply.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}