{
  "id": 7382437,
  "title": "US Dollar Index: Fed pricing supports gains – Scotiabank",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/14/us-dollar-index-fed-pricing-supports-gains-scotiabank",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-14T18:58:14.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "FXStreet",
    "slug": "fxstreet",
    "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-fed-pricing-supports-gains-scotiabank-202609141858"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Scotiabank analysts Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight that the US Dollar (USD) begins FOMC week on a robust note, following an 85% probability of tightening priced in by swaps. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently fairly valued against front-end spreads, and further gains above 100 would demand significant changes in yield differentials that the Fed may not be willing to provide. The USD starts FOMC week on a firm note, reflecting the shift in expectations due to last week's US inflation data. Swaps now indicate a 21 basis point (or 85%) chance of tightening during Wednesday, with the Bloomberg survey showing a narrow majority favoring a hold. Historically, swaps pricing that indicates a 70% or higher chance of a Fed rate move has accurately predicted a policy decision, making dollar gains in response to such pricing logical. However, an unchanged Fed decision would be a shock for markets and negative for the USD, while a dovish hike that fails to commit to further rate hikes could also weigh on the USD. The DXY is assessed to be fairly priced given current front-end spreads, and further gains above the 100 level would require a substantial move in yield differentials, which the Fed is not currently prepared to provide.",
  "summary": "Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the US Dollar (USD) is firm at the start of FOMC week as swaps now price an 85% chance of tightening on Wednesday.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 2,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "FXStreet",
        "title": "Euro tumbles to one-month low as Fed rate hike bets dominate",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/14/euro-tumbles-to-one-month-low-as-fed-rate-hike-bets-dominate",
        "published": "2026-09-14T14:33:34.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}