{
  "id": 7273385,
  "title": "Fed and Copom on the Same Two Days: What This Week’s Decisions Mean for Expat Money",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/14/fed-and-copom-on-the-same-two-days-what-this-weeks-decisions-mean-for",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-14T07:26:24.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "The Rio Times",
    "slug": "the-rio-times",
    "url": "https://www.riotimesonline.com/latam-fed-copom-week-expat-money-september-2026/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Two major interest rate decisions, one from the US Federal Reserve and the other from Brazil's Central Bank, coincide this week. For those with financial dealings involving dollars and Latin American currencies, this creates a unique opportunity and risk. The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee convenes on September 15-16, while Brazil's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) also holds its two-day meeting during the same dates.\n\nIn Brasilia, the Copom has indicated a near certainty of a 0.25-point reduction in the Selic rate during their September meeting, as priced by Selic options on the B3 exchange. This represents a nearly 95% probability. The Selic rate has fallen consecutively since June, from its cycle peak to the current 14.00%. The most recent Consumer Price Index (IPCA) report shows deflation, reducing the need for further rate hikes. Analysts' surveys predict the Selic rate will end 2026 at 13.75% and 2027 at 12.00%, with inflation at 5.00% this year and around 4.3% the following year.\n\nAcross the ocean in Washington, the Federal Reserve is expected to hold its target range at 3.50%-3.75%. While a smaller impact for each tenth of a point of expected US easing, significant carry-trade flows for high-yielding Latin American currencies like the real and the Mexican peso could be influenced. If you earn in dollars and spend in reais, a Brazilian rate cut can be beneficial for your dollar's purchasing power, though the routine cut may not cause significant currency movement due to the high expectations.\n\nThe main concern for those holding local currency is the potential for increased volatility. Traders have already noticed this on Monday's reopening, with the Chilean peso weakening to 940.91 per dollar and Brazil's real nearing 5.12 as positions were trimmed. Major rate decision afternoons are historically the most volatile hours of the week for USD/BRL, so it is recommended to avoid scheduling large currency conversions for decision-day afternoons.\n\nFor those with a Brazilian savings or CD habit, the direction is clear. Fixed-rate deposits locked at today's 14.00% regime will become more attractive as each meeting approaches, with the Focus survey predicting the Selic rate to end 2026 at 13.75% and 2027 at 12.00%. Brazil's fixed rate auctions resume after the weekend, and Colombia has just certified a new TRM. On Tuesday, the Ecopetrol extraordinary assembly in Bogotá will take place. Wednesday is the main event, with the FOMC statement in the afternoon US time, followed by the Copom's statement on Wednesday evening Brasilia time. Exact release times are available on the respective central banks' official websites.\n\nThe political climate in Brazil also adds complexity, with the first-round presidential election 20 days away on October 4. The decisions by both committees can have indirect effects on the region, as a Fed hold with hawkish wording could lift the dollar against most Latin American currencies, lowering the dollar cost of expenses in peso or real. A dovish surprise, on the other hand, would have the opposite effect. Large conversions should not be based on the outcome of the day, as the effects typically fade within days unless the rate outlook changes. To keep track of the rates, use official references such as PTAX in Brazil, TRM in Colombia, and the dolárobservado in Chile.",
  "summary": "LATIN AMERICA · MONEY Key Facts —The dates The US Federal Reserve’s FOMC and Brazil’s Copom both meet on 15–16 September 2026 — two decisions in the same two days. —The bets B3 options put roughly 95% probability on a 0.25-point Selic cut to 13.75%; a hold gets about 3.5%. Economists expect the Fed to […] The post Fed and Copom on the Same Two Days: What This Week’s Decisions Mean for Expat Money…",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}