{
  "id": 7261430,
  "title": "USD/CAD Price Forecast: Edges higher above 1.3850, but bearish bias persists",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/14/usd-cad-price-forecast-edges-higher-above-1-3850-but-bearish-bias",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-14T07:01:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "FXStreet",
    "slug": "fxstreet",
    "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-edges-higher-above-13850-but-bearish-bias-persists-202609140701"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The USD/CAD currency pair exhibited modest gains around 1.3875 during the morning European trading session on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) edged higher against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) as anticipation grew for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate increase later on Wednesday. This optimism was fueled by recent US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which revealed a more robust inflation rate. The headline CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month (MoM) in August, with a 12-month increase of 3.4%, aligning with market expectations. While core CPI inflation also rose to 0.3% MoM, it exceeded the 0.2% forecast. These inflationary signals, coupled with strong readings in the Producer Price Index (PPI), heightened the possibility of a Fed rate hike this week and bolstered the USD. Currently, there is an 86% probability of a rate hike this week and another rise later in the year, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool. Meanwhile, rising tensions in the Middle East, including Iranian attacks on oil facilities, could elevate crude oil prices, potentially supporting the CAD, which is heavily dependent on oil exports. Analysts at Scotiabank noted that front-end US/Canada spreads have remained relatively stable despite the heightened focus on US rate policy, providing some support to the CAD in the short term. Observing the daily chart, USD/CAD maintains a slight bearish tilt, trading below the 100-day moving average and the upper Bollinger Band. Price is currently hovering just above the Bollinger middle band, signaling underlying demand in that vicinity, while the Relative Strength Index (14) remains neutral at 49.9, indicating a lack of strong directional momentum. Key resistance levels are observed at 1.3920-1.3930, the upper Bollinger Band and 100-day MA. A successful breakout above this level could propel the pair towards the psychological 1.4000 level and the August 4 high of 1.4080. Conversely, immediate support lies at the Bollinger middle band near 1.3840, followed by a stronger structural floor at the lower Bollinger Band around 1.3760, where a potential reversal could occur if the pair extends its decline.",
  "summary": "The USD/CAD pair posts modest gains around 1.3875 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) amid rising expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike later on Wednesday.",
  "key_points": [
    "USD/CAD edges higher above 1.3850 during morning European session",
    "Robust US CPI data fuels optimism for Fed rate hike",
    "Middle East tensions may boost CAD due to oil price impact"
  ],
  "editors_take": "The USD/CAD pair's modest gains are underpinned by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, but a bearish bias persists, with key resistance levels ahead that could shift momentum.",
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 2,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "FXStreet",
        "title": "Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD bears have the upper hand below $64.75-$64.85 confluence",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/14/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-bears-have-the-upper-hand-below-64-75",
        "published": "2026-09-14T02:31:50.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}