{
  "id": 7247850,
  "title": "Market expects status quo as MPC meets today",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/14/market-expects-status-quo-as-mpc-meets-today",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-14T05:04:32.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Business Recorder",
    "slug": "business-recorder",
    "url": "https://www.brecorder.com/news/40439161/market-expects-status-quo-as-mpc-meets-today"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The State Bank of Pakistan's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is anticipated to convene for the second time this fiscal year, on Monday, with most market observers anticipating the status quo. Following their previous meeting on July 27, the MPC opted to maintain the policy rate at 11.5%, citing external risks stemming from the Middle East conflict. The bank stated that the current monetary policy aligns with their goal to steer inflation towards the 5-7% target range over the medium term.\n\nSeveral analysts had anticipated the SBP to retain the status quo, as surging inflation from high global oil prices could constrain the room for monetary easing. Ismail Iqbal Securities stated that they expect the policy rate to remain unchanged at 11.5%, taking a balanced stance amid better external buffers and renewed inflationary pressures. Topline Securities' poll revealed that 84% of respondents expect the policy rate to stay unchanged, while 14% predict a 50bps increase, and 2% anticipate a 100bps rise.\n\nMarket participants' expectations are largely based on annual inflation forecasts, which, given current oil prices of $95 per barrel, remain below 9%. This implies a positive real spread of over 250bps, aligning with historical real rates. Furthermore, improving reserves and a contained current account balance bolster the status quo viewpoint among participants. Analysts at Topline Securities also foresee the SBP maintaining the policy rate at 11.5%, primarily due to a strong real spread and improving external outlook, especially after the recent $3 billion Eurobond issuance.\n\nHowever, if oil prices and food inflation persist, this could necessitate a 50-100bps rate hike in subsequent MPC meetings, particularly in October or December 2026. JS Global expressed a similar sentiment, stating that if geopolitical tensions persist into the December quarter, the next move would likely be an increase. This risk is becoming increasingly credible, with one-third of respondents in their recent survey anticipating a hike by December 2026.",
  "summary": "The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to meet today (Monday) for the second time this fiscal year, with a majority of market participants expecting a status quo. At its previous meeting on July 27, the central bank’s MPC, despite signs of improvement in Pakistan’s macroeconomic outlook, left the policy rate unchanged at 11.5% , citing heightened external…",
  "key_points": [
    "State Bank of Pakistan's MPC to meet for second time this fiscal year",
    "MPC maintains 11.5% policy rate amid external risks from Middle East conflict",
    "84% of analysts expect policy rate to stay unchanged at 11.5%"
  ],
  "editors_take": "The decision to likely maintain the policy rate at 11.5% reflects a balancing act by the State Bank of Pakistan between inflationary pressures and a relatively stable external outlook.",
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}