{
  "id": 7113914,
  "title": "How far could house prices fall?",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/13/how-far-could-house-prices-fall",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-13T14:01:23.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "MacroBusiness",
    "slug": "macrobusiness",
    "url": "https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2026/09/how-far-could-house-prices-fall/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "According to Cotality's index, home values in the five major capital cities have fallen by 5.2% since their peak on 10 April 2026. The most significant decline, 8.6%, occurred between October 2017 and May 2019. As of now, the country is on track for its largest decline in capital city dwelling values on record by the end of 2026, with a projected 4.0% monthly rate. Leading financial institutions HSBC and CBA have downgraded their forecasts for the peak-to-trough decline in dwelling values, with HSBC now predicting a 10% drop and CBA forecasting a 13% decrease. HSBC's chief economist, Paul Bloxham, attributes the rapid decline to the tax changes introduced in the 12 May federal budget. Bloxham noted that the market has yet to experience a \"circuit breaker\" effect from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), and further rate hikes are expected in the short term, with no cuts anticipated until the second half of 2027. HSBC's house price forecast is considered the most realistic among the banks. With additional rate hikes already priced into financial markets and mortgage repayment burdens at their highest since the early 1990s, prices are expected to plummet significantly. The predicted path for Australian house prices mirrors New Zealand's housing correction, which started in November 2021. Prices are expected to plummet for up to 18 months, then stabilize in a prolonged period before declining in real, inflation-adjusted terms.",
  "summary": "According to Cotality’s daily dwelling values index, home values across the five major capital city markets have declined by 5.2% from their 10 April 2026 peak. The biggest decline in 40 years of records, according to Cotality, was 8.6%, recorded between October 2017 and May 2019. At the current pace of decline, which is 4.0%, The post How far could house prices fall? appeared first on…",
  "key_points": [
    "Home values in major cities fell 5.2% since April 2026 peak",
    "Largest decline 8.6% between Oct 2017 and May 2019",
    "HSBC predicts 10% drop in dwelling values by end of 2026"
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}