{
  "id": 6870650,
  "title": "Will US 10-year bond yield crossing 5% really hurt markets? Yes Securities says fears overblown",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/12/will-us-10-year-bond-yield-crossing-5-really-hurt-markets-yes",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-12T05:01:48.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "The Economic Times - Top News",
    "slug": "the-economic-times-top-news",
    "url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/us-stocks/wall-street-guide/will-us-10-year-bond-yield-crossing-5-really-hurt-markets-yes-securities-says-fears-overblown/articleshow/134109122.cms"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "While reports suggest the US 10-year Treasury yield nearing the 5% mark could have detrimental effects on financial markets, several analysts disagree, deeming such concerns as exaggerated. The yield has recently surpassed 4.9%, edging closer to the 5% threshold it last approached in 2023. Securities brokerage Yes Securities has taken a contrary position, arguing that the surge in global yields stems from robust nominal growth, a more permanent real rate equilibrium, and a synchronized global monetary shift towards normalization, rather than deteriorating economic conditions or an impending fiscal crisis.\n\nYes Securities points out that US nominal growth remains strong, consumption continues to be resilient, and corporate earnings are outperforming expectations. These factors enable companies to generate sufficient cash flow to accommodate a higher discount rate. The brokerage also notes that the United States' r-star rate has increased to 1.65%, indicating a higher fundamental cost of capital. However, the market is already factoring in two to three potential Federal Reserve rate hikes within the next year, viewing this as a case of monetary normalization rather than an economic catastrophe, particularly considering the continued stability of credit markets and Treasury demand.\n\nThe brokerage further highlights that the current economic environment differs significantly from the 2008 financial crisis. Technological advancements driven by artificial intelligence are fueling investments in data centers, semiconductors, power, and digital infrastructure, creating genuine capital expenditures and productivity gains. This stands in contrast to the post-Great Financial Crisis era, which was primarily driven by liquidity-injected asset inflation. The brokerage also mentions the strong interest-coverage ratios observed in major technology firms and contained credit spreads, providing additional balance-sheet resilience.\n\nMoreover, the synchronized rate increases across the globe mitigate the risk of a destabilizing dollar or emerging market shock. Taking these factors into account, Yes Securities believes that a 5% Treasury yield would not necessarily be restrictive for equities, provided corporate revenues and earnings continue their upward trajectory. The brokerage's base expectation is for the US 10-year Treasury yield to stay within a 4.7-5.2% range, which it considers a tolerable cost of capital in a higher growth economy. However, the risk profile would change significantly if yields were to sustainably rise toward 6-7%, signaling de-anchored inflation expectations, weakening fiscal credibility, or a substantial increase in r-star. Such a scenario could overwhelm earnings and nominal GDP growth, the brokerage warns.",
  "summary": "The 10-year US Treasury yield has risen above 4.9% and is marching towards the crucial 5% level that it had last hit briefly in 2023. Yes Securities issued a contrarian bet, saying the rise in global yields increasingly reflects stronger nominal growth, a structurally higher equilibrium real rate and synchronised global monetary normalisation, rather than deteriorating economic fundamentals or an…",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}