{
  "id": 6818851,
  "title": "ESPN Projection Model Changes Super Bowl Favorite After Rams Loss",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/11/espn-projection-model-changes-super-bowl-favorite-after-rams-loss",
  "topic": "culture",
  "section": "Culture",
  "published": "2026-09-11T23:15:15.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Newsweek",
    "slug": "newsweek",
    "url": "https://www.newsweek.com/sports/nfl/espn-projection-model-changes-super-bowl-favorite-after-rams-loss-12434215"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The Los Angeles Rams suffered a significant blow to their Super Bowl aspirations after a 27-7 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, causing major adjustments to ESPN's Football Power Index. Once leading with a 14.9% chance to win the Super Bowl following the acquisition of Myles Garrett, the Rams now trail nine teams at a 4.3% probability. The 49ers have surged from 6.8% to a commanding 19.4% chance, positioning them as the most likely team to secure the Lombardi Trophy. The 49ers now have a 70.5% chance of winning the NFC West, surpassing the Rams (10.5%) and Seattle Seahawks (18.8%). ESPN once projected an 85% chance for the Rams to make the playoffs, which has plummeted to 53.4% after a disappointing performance in Australia. Rams head coach Sean McVay acknowledged the team's poor showing, stating that they outplayed their opponents in every aspect, but they fell short. McVay emphasized that this day will define their season if not handled correctly. The loss may dampen the preseason hype surrounding the Rams, reminding everyone that a championship is not guaranteed. The Rams will soon receive reinforcements with the return of defensive end Aaron Donald from retirement. Meanwhile, ESPN projects the 49ers to win 12 games, but a lot can still change before they face the Rams again in Week 14.",
  "summary": "ESPN's Football Power Index dropped the Los Angeles Rams' chances to win the Super Bowl after losing to the San Francisco 49ers.",
  "key_points": [
    "Los Angeles Rams lose 27-7 to San Francisco 49ers",
    "ESPN's Football Power Index adjusts Super Bowl odds",
    "San Francisco 49ers become 19.4% favorites for Lombardi Trophy"
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}