{
  "id": 6790803,
  "title": "Bank of Japan: Gradual path toward neutral rate – ING",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/11/bank-of-japan-gradual-path-toward-neutral-rate-ing",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-11T19:24:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "FXStreet",
    "slug": "fxstreet",
    "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bank-of-japan-gradual-path-toward-neutral-rate-ing-202609111924"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "INK analysts Chris Turner and Padhraic Garvey anticipate the Bank of Japan will raise the policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% before adopting a gradual approach. They project two additional 25bp hikes in January and April, bringing the rate to 1.75%, which they consider near-neutral. The real policy rate is already negative and needs to be increased, as acknowledged by the BoJ in formal communications. The concept of a neutral rate, generally seen between 1.1-2.5% in nominal terms, is discussed in various BoJ speeches. Leaving the rate unchanged would likely shock investors, but a 50bp hike is less probable. A 50bp hike could be part of a broader agreement with Washington to lower USD/JPY, reduce the need for large-scale dollar selling intervention, and stabilize JGBs. However, government resistance to aggressive tightening is expected. The Japanese government's pro-growth strategy may dissuade officials from a more rapid tightening cycle. A near-neutral 1.75% policy rate by April is considered appropriate, considering the consumption tax cut on food and non-alcoholic beverages. BoJ's focus has shifted towards inflation moving onto a sustainable path, with higher input/producer prices likely feeding through into broader CPI.",
  "summary": "ING analysts Chris Turner and Padhraic Garvey argue the Bank of Japan is likely to hike 25bp to 1.25% and then proceed cautiously.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 2,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "FXStreet",
        "title": "Japan: BoJ tightening path in focus – ING",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/11/japan-boj-tightening-path-in-focus-ing",
        "published": "2026-09-11T14:36:16.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}