{
  "id": 6769105,
  "title": "Fed rate hike odds surge to 90% on monthly jump in core prices",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/11/fed-rate-hike-odds-surge-to-90-on-monthly-jump-in-core-prices",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-11T13:12:06.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Yahoo Finance",
    "slug": "yahoo-finance",
    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/fed-rate-hike-odds-surge-to-90-on-monthly-jump-in-core-prices-131206510.html"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Inflation data released on Friday has increased the chances of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates next week to 90%, according to CME FedWatch. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% month-over-month in August, surpassing expectations of 0.2%. The year-over-year inflation rate was in line with expectations at 2.4%, down 0.1% from July. On a headline basis, the CPI rose 3.4% in August, matching expectations, and increased 0.4% month-over-month. Stephen Brown, North America chief economist for Capital Economics, stated that the upside surprise in core CPI suggests the Fed is likely to hike rates at the upcoming meeting. Market expectations now favor a 90% chance of a rate hike during the Fed policy meeting on Wednesday. Officials will examine inflation trends over the past three, six, and 12 months to determine if price pressures are easing. Fed officials are divided on whether inflation is falling to the 2% goal or if they need to raise rates. Fed Governor Chris Waller mentioned that he would support holding rates steady if August's figures show inflation decreasing and core prices remaining at 0.2%, while supporting a rate hike if inflation comes in hot. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh noted that inflation is too high and rates are not restricting borrowing, except in housing. He indicated that inflation had not improved enough to justify his desired rate cuts in June and July. Following a brief easing in those months, inflation surged again in August, setting the stage for a likely interest rate hike. RSM chief economist Joseph Brusuelas expects the Fed to raise rates at least two more times over the next year to bring inflation back to its 2% target. New York Fed President John Williams suggested that if monthly readings on inflation consistently came in at 0.2% on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, it would indicate inflation is coming down. Capital Economics economist Brown estimates core PCE rose by 0.27% month-over-month in August, with that figure not likely to be significantly affected by future revisions to price calculations. Brusuelas stated that core PCE inflation is moving in the wrong direction, which should support centrists on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) like Governor Christopher Waller in backing a rate hike next week. The surge in oil prices over the past week further complicates the Fed debate. While standard procedure is for the Fed to focus on underlying inflation dynamics, with inflation remaining above the 2% goal for five and a half years, the recent oil price shock may make it difficult for officials to continue looking through the supply shock.",
  "summary": null,
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}