{
  "id": 6603673,
  "title": "United States: Higher August forecast with methodology shift – TD Securities",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/10/united-states-higher-august-forecast-with-methodology-shift-td",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-10T14:50:59.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "FXStreet",
    "slug": "fxstreet",
    "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-higher-august-forecast-with-methodology-shift-td-securities-202609101450"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "TD Securities economists Eli Nir and Oscar Munoz have increased their August core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) forecast following stronger components in the August Producer Price Index (PPI) report. The new projections foresee core PCE at 0.24% month-over-month (m/m) and 3.3% year-over-year (y/y), while headline PCE is expected at 0.33% m/m and 3.8% y/y. They emphasize the impact of Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) methodology changes and anticipate downward revisions in year-on-year inflation, although they see slightly stronger near-term monthly profiles. August PPI components were slightly stronger than initially anticipated, contributing to the elevated core PCE forecast ahead of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The analysts now anticipate a core PCE of 0.24% m/m (3.3% y/y) and a headline PCE of 0.33% m/m (3.8% y/y). Their market-based core PCE forecast is more conservative at 0.18% m/m, representing a slight increase from July. The key to the Federal Reserve's September decision hinges on the upcoming CPI report. Portfolio management strategies are no longer driven by PPI, and there is uncertainty regarding the BEA's new calculation methodology, which is likely to be revised downward in the future. However, the market may be underestimating the scope of these revisions. Overall, the economists expect a decline in year-over-year inflation with more positive near-term monthly revisions.",
  "summary": "TD Securities economists Eli Nir and Oscar Munoz raise their August core PCE forecast after stronger PCE-relevant components in the August PPI report. They now expect core PCE at 0.24% m/m and 3.3% y/y, with headline PCE at 0.33% m/m and 3.8% y/y.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}