{
  "id": 6586817,
  "title": "La ESMA advierte que los mercados de predicción están 'plagados de información privilegiada'",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/10/la-esma-advierte-que-los-mercados-de-prediccion-estan-plagados-de",
  "topic": "business",
  "section": "Business",
  "published": "2026-09-10T12:21:16.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Expansion ES",
    "slug": "expansion-es",
    "url": "https://www.expansion.com/economia/financial-times/2026/09/10/6aa2a0ab468aeb206a8b456f.html"
  },
  "original_language": "es",
  "account": "The European Union's primary market regulator, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), has warned that prediction markets are plagued with privileged information and expose investors to significant risks of losses and exploitation by more sophisticated actors. This statement, made in their semi-annual risk report, contrasts with the more favorable approach taken by the United States. Prediction markets, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, have gained popularity in the U.S. as a way to bet on a wide range of future events, including sports matches, election results, and oil prices. However, European regulations largely prohibit their use.\n\nThe ESMA highlights that the structure of these platforms, which function like video games and promote themselves through social media, exposes inexperienced retail investors to significant financial risks, addictive behaviors, and exploitation by more sophisticated operators. They also note that the risks of market manipulation and the use of privileged information in prediction markets have reached new levels, particularly in platforms with limited identity verification, like Polymarket. A recent incident in April involved an American soldier accused of making bets on Polymarket about a mission that led to the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, resulting in substantial profits. The soldier, Gannon Ken Van Dyke, claimed innocence.\n\nThis regulator's negative view of the sector stands in stark contrast to the more favorable stance of U.S. authorities, who have approved the launch of several new prediction market products based on contract-like futures. In Europe, platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi remain largely unauthorized, and their websites explicitly prohibit consumer access. However, Europeans can still access them by using a VPN to hide their location, and the industry is intensifying its lobbying efforts to relax these restrictions. Malta is currently studying a regulatory framework for prediction markets, and both Polymarket and Kalshi state on their websites that they prohibit use for users from certain EU member states, although not all. In the United Kingdom, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is currently considering reforming its rules on retail investor access to prediction markets, despite stating that it considers the prohibition of binary options appropriate due to their speculative and gambling-like nature and high risk of consumer harm. Polymarket recently announced plans to increase its presence and expand in Europe by joining the Blockchain for Europe trade association in Brussels, with its legal director, Neal Kumar, expressing commitment to early and open dialogue with EU policymakers. The company operates an international cryptocurrency-based version and a more limited U.S.-only version regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The CFTC recently opened an investigation into Polymarket. Kalshi, which recently surpassed Polymarket in market volume, has also stated that it is working to replicate its regulated model in the U.S. in other countries. In July, its co-founder, Luana Lopes Lara, told Bloomberg Línea that Kalshi was in discussions with several international regulators and expressed strong enthusiasm for the prospect of future expansion in Europe.",
  "summary": "Las inquietudes del regulador de la UE sobre los riesgos que presenta el sector de rápido crecimiento contrastan con el enfoque más favorable de Estados Unidos. Leer",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}