{
  "id": 6585278,
  "title": "How far ahead can we predict the weather?",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/10/how-far-ahead-can-we-predict-the-weather",
  "topic": "science",
  "section": "Science",
  "published": "2026-09-10T12:00:54.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Physics World",
    "slug": "physics-world",
    "url": "https://physicsworld.com/a/how-far-ahead-can-we-predict-the-weather/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The ability to accurately predict the weather extends far beyond just the next few days, but there are limits to how far ahead we can forecast it. Researchers at the University of Miami and the NOAA Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS) believe that numerical weather prediction models can potentially predict weather conditions for around 129 days, though practical application may be more challenging.\n\nNumerical weather prediction technology has progressed significantly since its inception in the late 1940s, utilizing increasingly sophisticated mathematical models and large volumes of observational data. Today, we can forecast hurricane occurrences up to eight days in advance, a feat once considered impossible. However, determining the maximum predictability limit has proven challenging. Previous studies often relied on assumptions about small atmospheric perturbations, which introduced uncertainty into the calculations.\n\nTo address this issue, scientists Zoltan Toth and Wei Zhang developed a new method that analyzes the energy balance of the atmosphere, rather than focusing on small-scale perturbations. This approach eliminates the need for assumptions about error behavior and instead considers the deterministic dynamics of the atmosphere, which preserve information about its initial state. By accounting for the random nature of sunlight photons and the associated quantum-scale uncertainty, the researchers estimated that the range of skilful forecasts could extend from the current 14-day limit to 129 days at most, based on the energy turnover time of the atmosphere and the incoming and outgoing solar radiation fluxes.\n\nThis theoretical foundation, which emerged from an intuitive conceptual realization, demonstrates that the energy turnover time equals the upper limit of predictability. While the method may seem straightforward, the researchers had to develop a clear and understandable explanation of their technique. Their findings challenge prevailing perspectives on atmospheric predictability and open up possibilities for practical implications in both traditional and AI-based modeling. The researchers continue to explore additional independent ways to estimate the limit of predictability, emphasizing both the theoretical aspects and practical applications of these findings.",
  "summary": "New work on predictability limits suggests that around 129 days is probably the maximum limit The post How far ahead can we predict the weather? appeared first on Physics World .",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}