{
  "id": 645850,
  "title": "US CPI data set to show softer inflation in July as markets reassess Fed rate hike bets",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/12/us-cpi-data-set-to-show-softer-inflation-in-july-as-markets-reassess",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-08-12T08:30:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "FXStreet",
    "slug": "fxstreet",
    "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-cpi-data-set-to-show-softer-inflation-in-july-as-markets-reassess-fed-rate-hike-bets-202608120830"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "On Wednesday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, which are anticipated to reveal a slight decrease in both consumer and core inflation rates. The monthly CPI is projected to increase by 0.1%, from the 0.4% decline seen in June, while the annual figure is expected to fall to 3.4% from 3.5% in the previous month. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is projected to rise by 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually.\n\nFollowing a 16% drop in May, crude oil prices decreased by around 20% in June before rebounding to pre-war levels due to the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran on June 17. Consequently, CPI inflation moderated more rapidly than initially anticipated in June. TD Securities anticipates that July's inflation data will exhibit a mild uptick after the temporary softness observed in June. The bank predicts that \"July core CPI likely rebounded after June's one-off weakness, rising 0.20% month-over-month as services inflation reaccelerates, led by rents/OER, airfares, medical, and recreation.\" TD also notes that \"core goods likely posted their first increase in three months,\" while \"headline CPI may rise by 0.15% month-over-month, driven by lower gasoline prices offset by faster grocery price growth.\"\n\nThe US Federal Reserve holds a dual mandate to maintain price stability and maximum employment, with inflation targeted at around 2% year-over-year. The central bank's efforts to curb inflation have been intensified due to supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hovering near multi-decade highs. Despite the recent agreement between Iran and Oman to manage the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil prices surged by nearly 22% in July. However, the news of Iran and Oman working on a deal to open the waterway led to a decline in oil prices in the early weeks of August. Coupled with disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls data, which showed a surprising 23,000 decrease in jobs, investors have reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September.\n\nCurrently, markets anticipate a 52% probability of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate increase at the next policy meeting, as per the CME Group FedWatch Tool. However, market participants remain cautious about a policy hold, given the recent rise in oil prices and Iran's insistence on specific conditions before resuming activity in the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts at OCBC argue that the conditions for a significant shift in Fed expectations remain stringent, emphasizing that \"core CPI would need to print at 0.3% month-over-month or higher in July, surpassing the current 0.2% consensus forecast, to significantly boost expectations of a September rate hike.\" They also acknowledge that \"a rangebound USD, coupled with a constructive risk backdrop, should continue to support carry trades despite persistent volatility in oil markets.\" Recent easing in oil prices, driven by expectations of reopened Strait of Hormuz, implies that energy markets may remain uncertain, keeping the outlook for energy markets tentative.",
  "summary": "The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday. The report is expected to show a small decline in consumer inflation and core inflation.",
  "key_points": [
    "US CPI data set to reveal softer inflation in July",
    "Core CPI expected to rise 0.2% monthly, 2.5% annually",
    "Markets reassess Fed rate hike bets following oil price fluctuations"
  ],
  "editors_take": "The upcoming US CPI data is likely to reinforce market expectations of a pause in Federal Reserve rate hikes, as softer inflation figures may reduce pressure on the central bank to tighten policy further.",
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 12,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "Hindu BusinessLine",
        "title": "Groww adds over 70,000 active clients in July: NSE data",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/12/groww-adds-over-70-000-active-clients-in-july-nse-data",
        "published": "2026-08-12T09:56:45.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "The Economic Times - Economy",
        "title": "India’s July inflation quickens to 4.45% from 4.38% in June, stays above RBI target",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/12/indias-july-inflation-quickens-to-4-45-from-4-38-in-june-stays-above",
        "published": "2026-08-12T10:34:13.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "Times of India",
        "title": "CPI data: Retail inflation moves up to 4.45% in July; above RBI's target for 2nd month",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/12/cpi-data-retail-inflation-moves-up-to-4-45-in-july-above-rbis-target",
        "published": "2026-08-12T10:53:40.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "CNBC World",
        "title": "India’s inflation accelerates to 4.45% in July, raising hopes of a rate hike later this year",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/12/indias-inflation-accelerates-to-4-45-in-july-raising-hopes-of-a-rate",
        "published": "2026-08-12T11:01:06.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "Business Recorder",
        "title": "India July inflation accelerates to 4.45%, unlikely to alter RBI rate outlook",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/12/india-july-inflation-accelerates-to-4-45-unlikely-to-alter-rbi-rate",
        "published": "2026-08-12T11:21:45.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "Guardian Business",
        "title": "US inflation cooled slightly to 3.4% in July, according to latest data",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/12/us-inflation-cooled-slightly-to-3-4-in-july-according-to-latest-data",
        "published": "2026-08-12T12:39:46.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "The Hill",
        "title": "Inflation fell in July as Iran war marches on",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/12/inflation-fell-in-july-as-iran-war-marches-on",
        "published": "2026-08-12T12:46:18.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "WSJ Economy",
        "title": "The inflation rate cooled to 3.4% in July, the Labor Department said Wednesday, lower than June’s 3.5%",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/12/the-inflation-rate-cooled-to-3-4-in-july-the-labor-department-said",
        "published": "2026-08-12T13:03:00.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "CBS News",
        "title": "CPI report shows inflation eased in July to a 3.4% annual pace",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/12/cpi-report-shows-inflation-eased-in-july-to-a-3-4-annual-pace",
        "published": "2026-08-12T13:05:05.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "RTHK News - Finance",
        "title": "US inflation cools slightly to 3.4pc in July",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/12/us-inflation-cools-slightly-to-3-4pc-in-july",
        "published": "2026-08-12T13:40:03.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "NPR",
        "title": "Inflation eases in July as gasoline and grocery prices fall",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/12/inflation-eases-in-july-as-gasoline-and-grocery-prices-fall",
        "published": "2026-08-12T14:00:29.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}