{
  "id": 626188,
  "title": "Regional war drives global food inflation, poses risks for Pakistan",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/12/regional-war-drives-global-food-inflation-poses-risks-for-pakistan",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-08-12T02:33:53.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Dawn Business",
    "slug": "dawn-business",
    "url": "https://www.dawn.com/news/2022320/regional-war-drives-global-food-inflation-poses-risks-for-pakistan"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has warned that food prices may rise more than anticipated, potentially posing a global issue. The central bank's biannual monetary policy report highlighted that the regional war has had a significant impact on food prices in countries like Pakistan. Higher oil prices have led to increased fertiliser costs, which are adversely affecting the agricultural sector. With 46% of Pakistan's population already facing hunger-like conditions, the report suggests that agricultural commodity prices may remain high due to the effects of rising gas prices and the risk of El Niño in the first half of FY27. The SBP warns that fertiliser and gas prices could drive up costs, causing agricultural input expenses to soar. Pakistan's agriculture sector is grappling with water scarcity due to an outdated irrigation system that results in substantial water losses, while modern technology is not widely adopted. Additionally, the sector faces high input costs, such as fertiliser, electricity, and expensive seeds, compounded by an unpredictable climate that exacerbates losses, especially for small farmers. The Middle East crisis also disrupted the global gas market, as Qatar, accounting for around 19% of global LNG exports, was unable to supply gas. This disruption led to a spike in fertiliser prices, which further drove up the prices of agricultural commodities. The re-escalation of conflict in July resulted in renewed energy price increases, alongside a continued rise in agricultural product prices due to soaring fertiliser costs and an anticipated stronger El Niño this year. Global commodity price developments since the January Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting have resulted in a more substantial deterioration in Pakistan's terms of trade compared to expectations. Exports of food products from Pakistan declined by 25% in FY26, down from $6.330bn in FY25 to $4.744bn in FY26. Rice exports suffered the most considerable decline, falling by 31% in FY26 to $2.045bn from $2.954bn in FY25. The report also notes that global growth outlook has become less certain since January, with the IMF revising down its global real GDP growth projection for CY26, primarily due to weak growth prospects in energy-importing countries facing reduced real incomes following the energy price shock. These global commodity price developments have implications for inflation in both advanced economies and emerging economies.",
  "summary": "https://www.dawn.com/news/2022268",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}