{
  "id": 6175214,
  "title": "EMEA FX Talking: High yield and CEE remain in demand",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/07/emea-fx-talking-high-yield-and-cee-remain-in-demand",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-07T21:00:42.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Hellenic Shipping News",
    "slug": "hellenic-shipping-news",
    "url": "https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/emea-fx-talking-high-yield-and-cee-remain-in-demand/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "High yield currencies and Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) continue to be in demand among forex traders. The Polish zloty weakened due to a risk-off mood, driven by the US-Iran conflict and fears of Russian hybrid warfare in Europe. Despite not anticipating interest rate hikes in Poland, investors are betting on it, keeping the zloty's negative impact to a minimum. Mid-term expectations suggest a slight rise in €/USD in the second half of 2026, justified by regional economic growth and EU fund inflows.\n\nThe Hungarian forint (HUF) is expected to recover, as it has outperformed peers since April. The Monetary Council remains cautious, but improved inflation outlook and lower energy prices provide hope for further rate cuts. The forint could drop to 360 or lower if global markets calm down and the budget plan, due in autumn, is credible.\n\nThe Czech koruna's main advantage, a positive interest rate differential, is diminishing as Czech headline inflation rises, eroding the currency's leading edge. The Czech real interest rate is expected to near zero by next year, reducing the koruna's strength. Economic performance in the first half of 2026 has been underwhelming, hinting that the koruna will remain stable, with a gradual strengthening trend possible if the economy rebounds.\n\nRomania's currency, the Romanian leu (RON), could face greater pressures as the S&P rating decision looms. However, a budget deficit of 2.34% of GDP, down from 3.99% in July, offers some relief. The main development to watch is the formation of a fully empowered, fiscally responsible government. The pair is expected to stay within the current range, concluding the year near 5.25.\n\nSerbia's left-leaning (EUR/RSD) remains stable, largely unaffected by the US Treasury's OFAC extension of a waiver for Serbia's NIS refinery. The National Bank of Serbia kept interest rates steady in August, despite higher inflation expectations. The bank sold €320 million in the first seven months of 2026 to maintain stability, with further rate hikes anticipated.\n\nUkraine's hryvnia (USD/UAH) strengthened despite a hawkish Fed and geopolitical tensions. Central bank interventions and a 50 basis point rate hike supported the currency, but macroeconomic challenges remain. The National Bank of Ukraine predicts further rate hikes this year, but the outlook for the hryvnia remains uncertain.\n\nKazakhstan's tenge (USD/KZT) appreciated 3% in August and 5% during the summer, despite oil production disruptions and reduced state support. Net FX sales by quasi-sovereigns, the oil fund, and the central bank dropped to $0.3 billion in August, while foreign inflows into state bonds slowed. Private capital inflows have driven the KZT's reliance on carry trades, which is expected to remain supported by high real rates. Long-term appreciation may be limited by structural factors.\n\nUzbekistan's soum (USD/UZS) appreciated by 1% in August, following a flat summer. The boost was driven by restarted gold exports, totaling $1.3 billion in July. Oil exports have been limited to 18 million tons by July, compared to 85 million tons in 2025, suggesting potential for recovery later in the year. Portfolio inflows are likely to continue, supporting the current account and USZ prospects.",
  "summary": "EUR/PLN: Zloty hit by risk-off mood • The zloty weakened as the US-Iran conflict re-escalated and concerns about Russian hybrid warfare in Europe fuelled a risk-off mood. EUR/PLN recently rose towards 4.35, but we expect the move to be short-lived. • Although we do not share the market’s expectations of interest rate hikes in Poland ...",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}