{
  "id": 5997500,
  "title": "What is \"The Warsh Shadow Rate\"?",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/06/what-is-the-warsh-shadow-rate",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-06T14:26:09.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Investing.com",
    "slug": "investing-com",
    "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/what-is-the-warsh-shadow-rate-4890298"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The Federal Reserve's Chair Kevin Warsh has signaled a more hawkish stance on inflation, potentially leading to a September rate hike. However, softer incoming data could still postpone the decision, according to Citi Research. Citi has developed a \"Warsh shadow rate\" based on Warsh's key indicators highlighted in his Jackson Hole speech. This gauge is close to historical highs and often predicts two-year Treasury yields, implying increased probability of future monetary tightening. Warsh's focus on inflation, money supply, labor market data, financial conditions, and equity market indicators suggests a more aggressive monetary policy. However, indicators he downplays, such as inflation expectations, wages, and nonfarm payrolls, have softened. The bank argues that a 0.3% or higher core CPI increase would likely trigger a hike, while a 0.1% increase could postpone it. The implications of a 0.2% reading are less clear. This hawkish posture has pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher, particularly the 10-year yield, while rising oil prices add pressure on the long end of the yield curve. Citi predicts that equities may initially weaken following a first Fed hike, while bonds tend to perform poorly for an extended period.",
  "summary": null,
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}