{
  "id": 5985490,
  "title": "Barclays says rates and energy prices regain influence over equity markets",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/05/barclays-says-rates-and-energy-prices-regain-influence-over-equity",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-05T12:07:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Yahoo Finance",
    "slug": "yahoo-finance",
    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/barclays-says-rates-energy-prices-120700013.html"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Barclays strategists have observed that equity markets are increasingly influenced by shifts in interest rates and energy prices. Upcoming central bank decisions and developments in the oil market are expected to remain significant factors during September. Oil prices have risen due to the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, while European natural gas prices have hit their highest point since early 2023, although they are still below levels seen during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine energy crisis. Sustained higher energy prices are contributing to inflation and pressure on interest rates, according to Barclays strategists led by Emmanuel Cau. With inflation persisting and Federal Reserve officials delivering hawkish remarks, markets currently price roughly a two-thirds probability of a Fed rate increase in September. Barclays economists have revised their forecast, expecting two more Fed rate hikes this year, in September and December, alongside a potential increase in European rates from the European Central Bank. Markets have already priced in a significant degree of hawkish monetary policy expectations, although some indicators suggest U.S. economic activity is moderating. Payrolls data and the upcoming consumer price index release are critical data points to assess this view. Corporate earnings have provided support for equities amid tighter financial conditions, but the impact of second-quarter results is now diminishing. Barclays notes that equities have become more sensitive to interest rates and oil volatility recently, as the Q2 earnings tailwind has waned and macroeconomic factors have reasserted their influence. The upcoming autumn calendar includes central bank decisions, the U.S. midterm elections, talks between Xi and Trump, and ongoing geopolitical risks. Barclays advises a cautious approach with hedging and a tactical reduction in beta exposure, while maintaining a positive outlook through year-end, contingent upon interest rates and oil prices stabilizing. The possibility of a Russia-Ukraine truce could positively impact European equities, with cyclicals, particularly in Autos, Materials, and other energy-intensive sectors, expected to benefit from improving energy cost dynamics. Infrastructure and Industrial names may also gain from growing expectations around Ukraine's reconstruction. Defensive sectors like energy and utilities could underperform in such a scenario.",
  "summary": null,
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}