{
  "id": 5868147,
  "title": "The Winning Formula for Presidential Elections",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/05/the-winning-formula-for-presidential-elections",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-09-05T23:53:42.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "This Day",
    "slug": "this-day",
    "url": "https://www.thisdaylive.com/2026/09/06/the-winning-formula-for-presidential-elections/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "In my upcoming book, 'Anatomy of Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential Election', scheduled for release in late October 2026, I present several significant conclusions after analyzing voting trends during our Fourth Republic presidential elections. Currently, as leading opposition parties grapple with strategies to overthrow the APC from Aso Rock, I want to share a few insights from my research to assist politicians, political analysts, and strategists. During emotionally charged presidential elections, key principles often go unnoticed despite being clearly visible.\n\nMy first main point is the concept of the \"two out of three\" formula. Essentially, a presidential candidate must secure significant votes from two of the three dominant power blocs in Nigeria to win the election: the Hausa/Fulani, the Igbo, or the Yoruba. These three ethnic groups dominate four of the six geo-political zones and control almost two-thirds of the 36 states in the country. The Hausa/Fulani comprise the dominant group in the north-east and north-west, while the Igbo and Yoruba populations control the south-east and south-west, respectively. To secure victory, a candidate should aim to receive at least 30 percent of the votes from these two chosen power blocs.\n\nSince 1999, no candidate has been elected president without garnering substantial support from two of these three power blocs. In other words, achieving a substantial 30 percent of votes from two of the tripod zones is the critical pathway to victory. This consistent trend has nearly become a law, as Nigeria has held seven presidential elections since 1999, and every winner has managed to do well in two of these three power blocs, in addition to obtaining a decent share of the minority zones: the north-central and the south-south.\n\nTo illustrate this point, let's examine the 1999 election. President Olusegun Obasanjo, despite losing in his home zone of the south-west, managed to perform well in the core north and the south-east, defeating Chief Olu Falae, who only secured support from the Yoruba-dominated zone. Obasanjo's success demonstrated that losing in one home zone can still lead to victory if strong performances in the other two zones are achieved. In the subsequent 2007 presidential election, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, Obasanjo's main challenger, did well in the core north but fell short of winning in two additional zones. Consequently, Obasanjo emerged as the winner with a significant presence in the south-west and south-east, along with a substantial share of the minority zones.",
  "summary": "In my forthcoming book, ‘Anatomy of Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential Election’, due for publication in the last week of October 2026, I make a number of bold assertions after scrutinising voting",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}