{
  "id": 5786798,
  "title": "Explainer: How the Visa System Affects Net Overseas Migration (NOM)",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/05/explainer-how-the-visa-system-affects-net-overseas-migration-nom",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-05T14:15:39.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "MacroBusiness",
    "slug": "macrobusiness",
    "url": "https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2026/09/explainer-how-the-visa-system-affects-net-overseas-migration-nom/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The Visa System's Impact on Net Overseas Migration (NOM) in Australia\n\nA recent period of heated public debate in Australia has highlighted the lack of understanding surrounding how the visa system influences Net Overseas Migration (NOM). This explainer aims to clarify the topic for those seeking to learn more. NOM represents the change in Australia's resident population due to international movements in and out of the country. A resident is defined as someone who resides in the country for over 12 months within a 16-month period. The 12/16 rule is responsible for the delayed release of NOM data, which is first released as preliminary estimates six months after the reference quarter and final estimates at least 16 months later.\n\nNOM comprises changes in the numbers of Australian citizens, New Zealand citizens, and resident temporary and permanent visa holders. It excludes short-term holiday-making and business travel, which constitute the majority of international arrivals and departures each month. The diagram included in the source illustrates the various flows within the Australian resident population, including the resident flows A to H and the paths I and J, which are related to temporary residents becoming permanent or permanent becoming citizens. These latter flows do not directly impact NOM as they involve individuals already residing in the country merely shifting between categories.\n\nVisa settings can indirectly regulate NOM by affecting flows A, B, C, and I. In particular, the rules of the temporary and permanent visa system can influence the resident flows A, C, and I, which have the most significant impact on NOM. Importantly, NOM depends on net flows of residents to each bucket rather than gross flows. For instance, even if there are substantial temporary and permanent flows into and out of the resident stock, if these flows are balanced, they will not affect NOM. This nuance is often overlooked, as the resident flows into and out of the country are generally far larger than the change in the resident stock.",
  "summary": "By Dr Cameron Murray from Fresh Economic Thinking Your no-nonsense guide to a migration system that is poorly understood A lesson from the past few weeks of public debate in Australia is that even those who are most passionate about immigration don’t seem to understand how the design of the visa system affects Net Overseas The post Explainer: How the Visa System Affects Net Overseas Migration…",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}