{
  "id": 5587422,
  "title": "European Central Bank: Dovish hold may follow September hike - Rabobank",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/04/european-central-bank-dovish-hold-may-follow-september-hike-rabobank",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-04T15:24:06.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "FXStreet",
    "slug": "fxstreet",
    "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/european-central-bank-dovish-hold-may-follow-september-hike-rabobank-202609041524"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Bas van Geffen, Rabobank's Senior Macro Strategist, anticipates the European Central Bank (ECB) to increase its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% next week, with the possibility of maintaining this level for an extended period. Markets are pricing a more adverse path with a 3.00% terminal rate, while acknowledging upside risks if inflation broadens and growth remains resilient. The ECB is likely to raise rates next week, and the focus is on the subsequent policy path. Policymakers are expected to hold rates at 2.50% for an extended period, but there is a skew towards further hikes. The increase in energy prices strengthens the case for another rate hike. The ECB will remain vigilant, expecting a more restrained tone for the road ahead than the current market pricing. President Lagarde will reaffirm the ECB's readiness to act again if necessary, but there is little to gain from stronger pre-commitment. The market could interpret her attempts to keep all options open as somewhat dovish, which the ECB would likely welcome given the current market pricing. Current money market pricing suggests the ECB will likely maintain its \"measured pace\" of tightening, with an 85% probability of another hike before the end of the year and a 15-20% tail risk of accelerated hikes in October. Traders price a terminal rate around 3%, while risks are firmly to the upside. If inflation expectations accelerate or spread beyond energy price effects, the ECB will not hesitate to hike again.",
  "summary": "Rabobank's Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to hike its deposit rate by 25bp to 2.50% next week and then hold at that level for an extended period.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 2,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "FXStreet",
        "title": "Gold: Central bank buying underpins prices – ING",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/04/gold-central-bank-buying-underpins-prices-ing",
        "published": "2026-09-04T13:25:01.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}