{
  "id": 5515558,
  "title": "US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Holds steady near 99.00 below key averages before US jobs data",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/04/us-dollar-index-price-forecast-holds-steady-near-99-00-below-key",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-04T07:05:51.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "FXStreet",
    "slug": "fxstreet",
    "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-price-forecast-holds-steady-near-9900-below-key-averages-before-us-jobs-data-202609040705"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The US Dollar Index (DXY) remained stable around 99.00 in early European trading on Friday, as investors opted to wait for the upcoming US August employment data. Fed Governor Christopher Waller's remarks earlier in the week had a negative impact on the US Dollar. Waller signaled a preference to keep interest rates steady during the upcoming policy meeting, if latest inflation data indicated ongoing deceleration in price pressures. Following Waller's comments, traders reduced expectations for a US September rate hike, with the probability of a rate hike this month dropping to 50.2% from 63.2% the previous day, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The forecast for US Nonfarm Payrolls in August stands at an increase of 56,000 jobs, up from a drop of 23,000 in July, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at 4.1%. Should the employment data exceed expectations, it could provide a boost to the DXY in the short term. Analysts at Danske Bank noted that initially, the US Treasury market experienced a decline in yields following Waller's remarks, but yields later rebounded, leaving 10-year Treasuries flat by the end of the trading session. Waller's speech was characterized by a subtly less hawkish tone, with the FXS Speechtracker score at 6.1/10, slightly lower than the historical average of 6.3/10. The speech conveyed a cautiously optimistic outlook, stating that policy would likely remain unchanged in September if August inflation continued to improve, but a strong inflation print could still prompt a rate hike. This nuanced approach maintains a tightening bias while acknowledging more favorable three-month core inflation data and solid growth. The speech indicates a data-dependent pause with a low but non-negligible chance of further tightening, which is mildly supportive for the Dollar but less strongly so than in previous statements. The FXS Fed Sentiment Index fell by 2.06 points to 125.38, reflecting a slight retreat in perceived hawkishness, even though the index remains above the neutral 100 level. This suggests that while the Fed's stance remains hawkish overall, market expectations for immediate rate hikes are being tempered, potentially curbing the upside for the Dollar unless new inflation data reignites tightening expectations. Technical analysis shows the DXY Spot price maintaining a bearish short-term outlook, trading below the 20-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). The index is currently in the lower half of its Bollinger envelope, with the lower band providing nearby support, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40 suggests lingering downside pressure rather than a definitive oversold condition. The nearest resistance level lies at the Bollinger middle band around 99.35, and the next major hurdle is the 100-day SMA at 99.75, heading towards the psychological 100.00 level. The upper Bollinger band around 100.15 serves as a broader supply zone that would need to be retested to alleviate the current bearish bias. On the downside, the next key support level is the lower Bollinger band around 98.60, and a breakdown could open the path for further decline towards the May 8 low of 97.83.",
  "summary": "The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 99.00 in the early European trading hours on Friday.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 2,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "FXStreet",
        "title": "Australian Dollar edges higher above 0.7200 on rising RBA hike bets, eyes on US NFP data",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/04/australian-dollar-edges-higher-above-0-7200-on-rising-rba-hike-bets",
        "published": "2026-09-04T06:25:52.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}