{
  "id": 5511767,
  "title": "Economists see final ECB hike next week in split with markets",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/04/economists-see-final-ecb-hike-next-week-in-split-with-markets",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-04T07:22:55.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "The Business Times - Companies & Markets",
    "slug": "the-business-times-companies-markets",
    "url": "https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/banking-finance/economists-see-final-ecb-hike-next-week-split-markets"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to raise interest rates next week, according to economists, but not beyond that, in contrast to market expectations of multiple hikes. The majority of Bloomberg survey respondents anticipate a quarter-point increase in the deposit rate to 2.5% through 2027. However, traders price about three more hikes by mid-next year. This divergence underscores the ECB's struggle to balance monetary policy amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, which are driving up energy prices. While elevated inflation has not yet entrenched itself, risks persist. ECB officials emphasize that the rate hike will likely be a one-off measure, focusing on data dependence, anchored inflation expectations, and contained wage growth. They stress the importance of preventing second-round effects on wages before demanding a more forceful response. Some economists, such as Lithuania's Gediminas Simkus and Bulgaria's Dimitar Radev, believe a single hike next week will not suffice. Meanwhile, the US and Iran's renewed fighting over control of the Strait of Hormuz poses a significant risk to the ECB's future decisions, as a prolonged disruption could turn an energy-price shock into a broader inflation problem.",
  "summary": "The Strait of Hormuz “has become the swing factor for the ECB’s future decisions”",
  "key_points": [
    "ECB to raise interest rates next week by 25 basis points to 2.5%",
    "Market expects multiple hikes, not aligned with economists",
    "Tensions in Middle East drive energy price surge, inflation risk persists"
  ],
  "editors_take": "Economists' forecast of a single ECB rate hike next week, contrasting with market expectations of further hikes, highlights the ECB's challenge in calibrating policy amid persistent inflation risks and external pressures.",
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 2,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "Bloomberg",
        "title": "Economists See Final ECB Rate Hike Next Week",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/04/economists-see-final-ecb-rate-hike-next-week",
        "published": "2026-09-04T06:25:48.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}