{
  "id": 5487346,
  "title": "Debunking the ‘Tina’ doctrine: Nomura warns AI-driven rally masks US vulnerabilities",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/04/debunking-the-tina-doctrine-nomura-warns-ai-driven-rally-masks-us-5487346",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-04T04:00:08.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "SCMP Tech",
    "slug": "scmp-tech",
    "url": "https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3366304/debunking-tina-doctrine-nomura-warns-ai-driven-rally-masks-us-vulnerabilities"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Nomura's latest report highlights potential risks stemming from the artificial intelligence surge in the US economy and financial markets. The tech boom has obscured a growing US risk premium, as global savings are heavily concentrated in US dollar assets, making investors more vulnerable to a reversal in the AI-fueled equity rally, according to Nomura analysts led by Rob Subbaraman. The ratio of US net international investment position (NIIP) liabilities to the combined assets of all net creditor nations has surged to 80%, with US NIIP liabilities amounting to $21.9 trillion in 2025, representing 71% of gross domestic product. In March 2026, US portfolio liabilities had quadrupled to $37.4 trillion from $9.2 trillion before the global financial crisis. Nomura aims to dispel the notion of a 'Tina' doctrine, which posits that \"there is no alternative\" to US assets. The escalating exposure to US equities could have far-reaching consequences for global capital flows if foreign investors decide to scale back their holdings of US assets. Despite the strong profit growth of US equities driven by the AI boom, Nomura cautioned about high valuations, potential uncertainties in adoption, fierce competition from cheaper Chinese large language models (LLMs), and limitations on computing power, memory, and electricity. A downturn in AI could expose previously masked vulnerabilities and spark a broader risk-averse response, as the bank notes. Foreign investors' substantial exposure to US portfolio assets, combined with leverage and circular financing tied to the AI investment boom, could exacerbate the impact. Nomura estimates that US portfolio assets would have to plummet by more than 30%, akin to a global financial crisis-level repatriation, to fully compensate for the decline in US portfolio liabilities.",
  "summary": "The artificial intelligence boom has signalled growing risks in the US economy and capital markets, with a setback in the technology rally potentially triggering a sharp correction in US assets and weakening the dollar, according to a Nomura report. “The AI boom has masked a rising US risk premium,” Nomura analysts led by Rob Subbaraman said in a report on Thursday, warning that the concentration…",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 2,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "SCMP Business",
        "title": "Debunking the ‘Tina’ doctrine: Nomura warns AI-driven rally masks US vulnerabilities",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/04/debunking-the-tina-doctrine-nomura-warns-ai-driven-rally-masks-us",
        "published": "2026-09-04T04:00:08.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}