{
  "id": 5349615,
  "title": "Euro: Support firms with hawkish ECB pricing – Scotiabank",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/03/euro-support-firms-with-hawkish-ecb-pricing-scotiabank",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-03T14:14:58.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "FXStreet",
    "slug": "fxstreet",
    "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-support-firms-with-hawkish-ecb-pricing-scotiabank-202609031414"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Scotiabank's analysts Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret attribute the Euro's strength against the US Dollar to two key factors: robust Producer Price Index (PPI) data from the Euro area and improved expectations surrounding the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decisions. Currently, the markets project more than a 25 basis points increase in Euro rates by the end of the year. Short-term technical indicators for EUR/USD are neutral to bullish, with support around 1.1580 and limited resistance before 1.1650, while the fair value estimate hovers near 1.1623. However, recent fundamental reports have been inconsistent, with mixed signals from services and composite PMI reports, showcasing modest growth in the Euro area but concerning contractions in Germany and France. Despite this, the PPI figures remain the primary focus, as the ECB is determined to tackle inflation concerns. July's Euro area PPI printed at 5.8% year-over-year, illustrating renewed pressure and moving closer to the cycle's high from May. Furthermore, the ECB's rate expectations have become increasingly hawkish in the past week, extending the anticipated tightening beyond the initially priced 25bp hike by September. Nearly a full additional 25bp hike is now priced in for the year-end. The yield spread between Germany and the US has narrowed, providing renewed support, with the narrowed 2Y Germany-US yield spread currently estimated at 1.1623. EUR/USD short-term technicals reveal a neutral to bullish stance, with the latest stabilization in the spot price proving crucial, as it reveals strong support below 1.16, specifically at 1.1580. The modest gains in momentum have shifted the risk balance towards near-term strength, pulling the Relative Strength Index (RSI) back into the mid-50s. There is limited resistance anticipated before 1.1650, with a local high from mid/late August just above 1.17 noted.",
  "summary": "Scotiabank’s Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight that the Euro (EUR) is higher against the US Dollar (USD), supported by strong euro area Producer Price Index (PPI) and firmer European Central Bank (ECB) rate expectations. Markets now price more than one 25bp hike by year-end.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 2,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "FXStreet",
        "title": "Euro: ECB succession and data support resilience – BNY",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/03/euro-ecb-succession-and-data-support-resilience-bny",
        "published": "2026-09-03T12:17:14.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}