{
  "id": 5334886,
  "title": "Brent: Updated price paths as Persian Gulf flows shift – ING",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/03/brent-updated-price-paths-as-persian-gulf-flows-shift-ing",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-03T13:00:22.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "FXStreet",
    "slug": "fxstreet",
    "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-updated-price-paths-as-persian-gulf-flows-shift-ing-202609031300"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "ING’s Warren Patterson has revised his oil price forecasts upward, indicating tight markets for both Brent and refined products due to reduced Persian Gulf exports. The base case predicts Brent at $80 per barrel at the end of the fourth quarter, with scenarios ranging from $75 to $104 based on disruptions in the Hormuz Strait and potential US-Iran agreements. Despite these challenges, Gulf producers are more willing to ship oil through the Strait or via alternative routes. However, the accuracy of daily flow estimates is questionable, as vessels occasionally deactivate transponders during transit. US officials estimate flows at around 10 million barrels per day, while shipping trackers suggest 4-8 million barrels per day, with recent estimates rising. Assuming a flow of about 5 million barrels per day through the Strait, total Persian Gulf oil exports are roughly half of pre-war levels, including pipeline bypass volumes. The base case envisions a stalemate until shortly before the November US mid-term elections, followed by limited stabilisation involving Hormuz, military de-escalation, and possible sanctions relief. In October, Persian Gulf oil flows are expected to remain near half of pre-war levels, then recover to approximately 90% by December, incorporating bypass volumes. Brent is forecasted to average $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter, up from the previous estimate of $74. In the pessimistic scenario, escalating tensions disrupt Hormuz and bypass routes, potentially leaving year-end flows near half of pre-war levels and pushing Brent to an average of $104 per barrel. Conversely, the optimistic case assumes a September agreement restores pre-war flows by year-end, with Brent averaging $75 per barrel in the fourth quarter.",
  "summary": "ING’s Warren Patterson revises Oil forecasts higher, highlighting tight Brent and refined product markets as Persian Gulf exports remain around half of pre-war levels.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}