{
  "id": 5290399,
  "title": "Investment banks warn the Venezuela deal will not bring down fuel prices",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/03/investment-banks-warn-the-venezuela-deal-will-not-bring-down-fuel",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-03T08:41:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "MercoPress",
    "slug": "mercopress",
    "url": "https://en.mercopress.com/2026/09/03/investment-banks-warn-the-venezuela-deal-will-not-bring-down-fuel-prices"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Investment banks are cautioning that the recent deal involving Venezuela and U.S. investment banks will not effectively lower fuel prices. The agreement grants a company with a government stake control over 17 oil fields containing 65 billion barrels of reserves, with rights lasting a century. UBS points out that Venezuela's oil output will take years to recover and that the immediate effect on fuel prices will be minimal. The bank argues that the impact will primarily depend on developments in Hormuz, and they have not adjusted their forecasts due to the deal. White House officials had claimed the transaction would significantly reduce petrol prices for American consumers. However, experts point to timelines as the main deterrent. Rystad Energy predicts Venezuela won't regain its previous production peak, three times current levels, until 2050, requiring an investment of $85 billion. The bank also stresses the need for new transport infrastructure, technical proficiency, and a stable environment after years of underinvestment, sanctions, and power cuts. Despite Venezuela's possession of the world's largest proven reserves (300 billion barrels), the nation currently extracts only about 1.1 million barrels daily, ranking 20th globally, alongside Angola and Colombia. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed in Caracas that output would more than double in the coming years. Companies are responding differently, with Chevron committing to invest $7 billion over five years to double its production by 2031, the largest commitment by a U.S. firm since January. Spain's Repsol and ExxonMobil, which left the country in 2007 after part of their assets were nationalized, anticipate tripling their output. However, questions remain about the deal's long-term viability. Citi suggests that greater transparency and political legitimacy are necessary for it to endure a future change of government in Washington. UBS also warns of potential legal challenges due to the agreement allowing U.S. firms to take over projects previously run by Russian and Chinese entities. Both the Venezuelan opposition and segments of Chavismo have criticized the arrangement. Analyst Homayoun Falakshahi of Kpler suggests that Venezuela's potential exit from OPEC would benefit Trump, but it may heighten internal pressure on the interim government.",
  "summary": "Leading financial analysis firms have tempered the White House's forecasts on the Venezuelan oil agreement announced by Donald Trump on Friday, which grants a company part-owned by the US government control of seventeen fields holding some 65 billion barrels of reserves for a hundred years.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}