{
  "id": 4919842,
  "title": "Welcome to the New Defense-Dominant World",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/01/welcome-to-the-new-defense-dominant-world-4919842",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-09-01T14:18:54.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Foreign Policy",
    "slug": "foreign-policy",
    "url": "https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/09/01/defense-dominant-theory-international-relations-military-power-ukraine-iran-war/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The recent conflicts in Ukraine and Iran have led many to believe that the world is entering a new era of \"defense dominance.\" This concept posits that larger, more powerful states find it difficult to conquer territory or persuade smaller nations to make significant concessions. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has echoed this sentiment, stating that the capacity of superpowers to impose their will or strength has been significantly limited in recent times.\n\nThe catalysts for this shift are clear: advanced drones, precise missiles, improved surveillance, and targeting abilities have made it increasingly challenging for large military units to operate openly. Additionally, high-cost power projection capabilities, such as aircraft carriers and stealth aircraft, are facing difficulties in neutralizing cheaper and more easily concealed drones and ballistic missiles.\n\nThese developments have made even relatively weak adversaries capable of mounting a robust defense of their homeland and inflicting costs from a distance. As a result, even stronger nations find it more difficult to compel others to surrender. This situation could pose significant challenges for the United States, which has grown accustomed to operating with minimal opposition and projecting power globally.\n\nWhile the United States' previous military prowess has allowed it to topple fragile autocrats and win significant victories in conflicts like Grenada and Panama, the current circumstances suggest a more complex and challenging environment. The question remains whether these recent developments represent a profound shift in the effectiveness of military power, the purposes for which it can be used, and the overall character of international politics.\n\nInternational relations theory offers some guidance on this issue, particularly through offense-defense theory. This theory, developed by scholars such as George Quester, Robert Jervis, Stephen Van Evera, Charles Glaser, and Chaim Kauffmann, suggests that the ease or difficulty of conquest can have profound effects on state security and their relationships with one another. If conquest is relatively easy, all states become less secure, leading to a higher likelihood of expansion, preemptive and preventive wars, and intense arms races. Moreover, states may adopt more offensive force postures, further reducing crisis stability and mutual trust.\n\nConversely, if defense has the advantage, small states can more effectively deter or defeat larger powers, and the acquisition of vast empires becomes much harder. States may also be more willing to trust one another and adopt defensive military forces and doctrines, enhancing their security without threatening others. In this scenario, the security dilemma is less intense, as defending against attacks is relatively easier than attacking.",
  "summary": "As military power proves less effective, an old IR theory is making a comeback.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 2,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "Foreign Policy",
        "title": "Welcome to the New Defense-Dominant World",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/01/welcome-to-the-new-defense-dominant-world",
        "published": "2026-09-01T14:18:54.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}