{
  "id": 4894548,
  "title": "Saws warns of hotter and drier spring/summer amid strongest El Niño in living memory",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/01/saws-warns-of-hotter-and-drier-spring-summer-amid-strongest-el-nino",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-09-01T16:34:23.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "The Citizen",
    "slug": "the-citizen",
    "url": "https://www.citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/weather/saws-warns-of-hotter-and-drier-spring-summer-amid-strongest-el-nino-in-living-memory/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The South African Weather Service (Saws) has issued a warning that the upcoming spring and summer months of 2026 to 2027 are expected to be marked by below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures. This prediction comes as the strongest El Niño in living memory is brewing in the Pacific Ocean. Saws explains that El Niño occurs when the sea surface temperature in the eastern central tropical Pacific Ocean becomes significantly warmer than usual, with a strong El Niño being more than 1.5°C warmer than average for three months on average, and a very strong El Niño surpassing 2°C. According to Saws, this El Niño event could be the strongest on record. Most El Niño events bring about below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures to the southern African region, including South Africa. The latest seasonal forecast from Saws for October to December 2026 indicates a high likelihood of these below-normal rainfall conditions, along with above-normal temperatures. The weather service predicts a similar outcome for the November 2026 to January 2027 period, emphasizing the potential for drier and warmer conditions across most of the country. Historically, some of the most impactful El Niño events for the southern African region occurred in 1982-83 and 2015-16, resulting in widespread droughts and unprecedented heatwaves. However, Saws notes that the 1997-98 El Niño event, which was very strong, was associated with slightly above-normal rainfall over parts of South Africa's summer rainfall region. It's important to note that while below-normal rainfall is statistically the most likely outcome this summer, not every El Niño event brings about drought. The South African Weather Service warns that this strong El Niño, combined with global warming, is expected to make 2027 the warmest year on record. Saws emphasizes that if the expected below-normal rainfall occurs during the 2026-27 El Niño event, it is likely that numerous severe heatwaves will occur concurrently, posing significant risks. The South African Weather Service further cautions that there remains some uncertainty regarding the final strength of the El Niño and its regional impacts. Due to this uncertainty, Saws will closely monitor the situation and continue to provide updates on the expected heatwaves and potential water scarcity associated with the event.",
  "summary": "The weather service predicts below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across South Africa from October to January 2027.",
  "key_points": [
    "South African Weather Service predicts hotter, drier spring/summer 2026-27",
    "Strongest El Niño in living memory brewing in Pacific Ocean",
    "Potential for severe heatwaves and water scarcity if below-normal rainfall occurs"
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}