{
  "id": 4710281,
  "title": "America’s high school graduating class is projected to shrink 13%. Colleges are already feeling the squeeze",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/31/americas-high-school-graduating-class-is-projected-to-shrink-13",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-08-31T20:35:43.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Fortune",
    "slug": "fortune",
    "url": "https://fortune.com/2026/08/31/college-enrollment-decline-closures-high-school-graduates/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The United States is set to see a 13% drop in the number of high school graduates annually, from 3.9 million in 2025 to around 3.4 million by 2041. This decline poses challenges for colleges as they grapple with reduced enrollment, rising costs, and competition for available students. The average number of colleges to which students apply through the Common App has increased from 6.37 to 6.56 since the previous year. Financial pressures faced by schools, particularly those reliant on tuition revenue, have become more pronounced, leading some institutions to close or merge. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia predicts that 80 colleges could shut down between 2025 and 2029. Additionally, the traditional four-year college path is under threat as enrollment in two-year vocational institutions has surged by nearly 20% over the past five years. The price of a four-year degree has also become prohibitively expensive, with many schools now charging over $100,000 in tuition, housing, and other expenses. Moreover, the allure of careers in skilled trades has led to fewer high school graduates enrolling directly in college, with immediate enrollment dropping from 70% to 62% over the past decade. As a result, the business of filling classrooms has become increasingly complex, with schools finding it difficult to balance the need for tuition revenue with the challenge of attracting and retaining students.",
  "summary": "Rising costs and steep tuition discounts are squeezing college budgets just as the pool of prospective students begins to shrink.",
  "key_points": [
    "High school graduates projected to drop 13% from 3.9M to 3.4M",
    "Colleges face enrollment challenges due to reduced student numbers",
    "Two-year vocational schools enrollment up 20% over five years"
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}