{
  "id": 4547549,
  "title": "Experts: Naira Could Strengthen Below N1,000/$ in One Year, N985/$ is Fair Value",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/31/experts-naira-could-strengthen-below-n1-000-in-one-year-n985-is-fair",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-08-31T02:05:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "This Day",
    "slug": "this-day",
    "url": "https://www.thisdaylive.com/2026/08/31/experts-naira-could-strengthen-below-n1000-in-one-year-n985-is-fair-value/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Analysts at MDU Capital Limited believe the Nigerian naira could surpass N1,000 per dollar within the next year, with a fair value estimate of N984.7/$, according to their recent research. The firm's research note, titled “Nigerian Naira: Valuation Gap Points to a Potential Sub-N1,000/$1 Path Over the Next 12 Months,” highlighted a significant discrepancy between the naira's market rate and its estimated fundamental value. MDU experts explained that their valuation placed the naira at N984.7/$1 (June 2026), which is currently below the N1,000 mark and 29% lower than the parallel market rate of N1,385. The research used three primary methods to determine the fair value: the money-supply model, forward-rate model, and their blended model. The money-supply approach calculated the naira's fair value at approximately N987/$, while the forward-rate estimate stood at around N1,043/$. Combining these estimates with a 90% weight on the money-supply valuation and 10% on the forward-rate value resulted in a fair value of N984.7/$. MDU Capital attributed the naira's current market pricing above its fundamental valuation to a wide dispersion observed since 2024. Despite this, the firm forecasted a gradual narrowing of the valuation gap, projecting the naira at N933/$ by June 2027 in their \"12-Month Outlook: Fair-Value Convergence Scenario.\" This projection represents a scenario-based estimate, not a guaranteed forecast or investment recommendation.",
  "summary": "Nume Ekeghe The naira could strengthen to below N1,000/$ within the next 12 months, with analysts at MDU Capital Limited putting the currency’s fair value at N984.7/$, according to its",
  "key_points": [
    "MDU Capital predicts Nigerian naira to strengthen below N1,000/$ in one year.",
    "Fair value estimated at N984.7/$ by June 2026.",
    "Current market rate at N1,385 is 29% higher than fair value."
  ],
  "editors_take": "This forecast indicates a potential significant shift in Nigeria's currency landscape, suggesting that if realised, the naira's strengthening would close its current valuation gap and align more closely with its fundamental value.",
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}