{
  "id": 4529544,
  "title": "‘Desil-desilan’: Indonesia’s welfare ranking needs more than a data refresh...",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/31/desil-desilan-indonesias-welfare-ranking-needs-more-than-a-data",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-08-31T00:07:07.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "The Jakarta Post",
    "slug": "the-jakarta-post",
    "url": "https://www.thejakartapost.com/opinion/2026/08/31/desil-desilan-indonesias-welfare-ranking-needs-more-than-a-data-refresh.html"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Indonesia's welfare ranking system, known as the National Socioeconomic Data (DTSEN), has come under scrutiny due to its perceived inflexibility and reliance on outdated data. The system's ranking is based on a probabilistic statistical estimate, known as the Proxy Means Test (PMT), which assigns households to deciles from 1 (poorest) to 10 (richest). This ranking determines eligibility for subsidized fuel and other benefits. However, the system has been criticized for assigning high-ranking households to decile 9 or 10, despite these individuals living in low-income conditions. This has sparked public outrage, leading ministers and the head of Statistics Indonesia to issue public statements. The deeper issue extends beyond the data's age; the PMT is being treated as an indisputable fact, a gamble with deciles. The underlying mechanics involve a combination of older welfare data, extreme poverty records, and the 2022 Socioeconomic Registration, supplemented by administrative agency files. The decile ranking is calculated from this pool, with households ordered by their predicted scores and divided into ten equal groups. However, the PMT has a limited explanatory power, with studies showing $R^2$ values between 40 percent and 60 percent. This means that half of the variation in actual household consumption remains unexplained, which is a common limitation of the proxy means method worldwide.",
  "summary": "The deeper issue is that a probabilistic statistical estimate is being wielded as an indisputable administrative fact; one deemed sharp enough to decide who gets subsidized fuel and who walks away empty-handed.",
  "key_points": [
    "Indonesia's welfare ranking system, DTSEN, based on outdated data and PMT",
    "PMT assigns households to deciles, criticized for inaccuracies",
    "Limited explanatory power, $R^2$ between 40-60 percent"
  ],
  "editors_take": "The flawed ranking system highlights a gap between Indonesia's welfare assessments and reality, undermining the effectiveness of targeted benefits for low-income households.",
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}