{
  "id": 4149233,
  "title": "US Fed rate hike bets soar to 57% from 30% after Warsh's speech. What are Goldman Sachs and others saying?",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/29/us-fed-rate-hike-bets-soar-to-57-from-30-after-warshs-speech-what-are",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-08-29T08:30:23.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "The Economic Times - Top News",
    "slug": "the-economic-times-top-news",
    "url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/us-stocks/news/us-fed-rate-hike-bets-soar-to-57-from-30-after-warshs-speech-what-are-goldman-sachs-and-others-saying/articleshow/133607902.cms"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Following US Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, traders have significantly increased their expectations of an interest rate hike. The probability of a hike now stands at 57%, up from 30% before his speech in Wyoming, according to CME FedWatch data. This shift in expectations is not limited to the September meeting - traders are betting on a 70% chance of a rate hike at the October 28 meeting and a near 90% chance by the final meeting of the year in December.\n\nWarsh highlighted that the Fed will need to demonstrate confidence in the underlying inflation moving towards its 2% target. He emphasized that inaction on inflation is work that needs to be done, and the Fed's primary focus should be on prices. The remarks garnered approval from fellow central bankers, who were seeking more concrete commitments from Warsh to achieve price stability. However, critics noted his reluctance to outline a clear path to achieve this.\n\nWhile Goldman Sachs maintained its expectation of no rate hike in September, it acknowledged the possibility of a hike if inflation data proves more robust than anticipated. The brokerage believes the recent improvements in inflation, while promising, do not signal a significant shift in underlying price pressures. Goldman Sachs noted that 54% of goods and services in the PCE basket have seen price increases of over 3% over the past year, though this is below the pre-pandemic peak. The brokerage attributed this elevated reading in part to tariff effects.",
  "summary": "US rate-hike expectations jumped sharply after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, with traders pricing a 57% chance of a September hike. Goldman Sachs, however, expects rates to remain unchanged, while warning that hotter-than-expected inflation data could alter the outlook. Here’s what markets and economists are saying.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 3,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "RTHK News - Finance",
        "title": "US markets end slightly lower after Warsh speech",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/28/us-markets-end-slightly-lower-after-warsh-speech",
        "published": "2026-08-28T23:44:03.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "The Business Times - Companies & Markets",
        "title": "European shares rise as French stocks rebound; markets digest Warsh speech",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/28/european-shares-rise-as-french-stocks-rebound-markets-digest-warsh",
        "published": "2026-08-28T23:48:01.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}