{
  "id": 4085086,
  "title": "Israel election could swing shekel by up to 3 percent, JPMorgan estimates",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/29/israel-election-could-swing-shekel-by-up-to-3-percent-jpmorgan",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-08-29T01:49:52.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Haaretz",
    "slug": "haaretz",
    "url": "https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2026-08-29/ty-article/israel-election-could-swing-shekel-by-up-to-3-percent-jpmorgan-estimates/000001a0-4b25-d649-a7be-df67f5c80000"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Israel's upcoming October 27 election could cause the shekel's value to fluctuate by up to 3 percent, depending on whether the opposition or Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party gains power, according to a JPMorgan report. The U.S. bank's analysts believe the market is increasingly favoring an opposition victory led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, though they acknowledge the situation is complex, with past polls having occasionally underestimated Netanyahu's Likud party. While significant alterations to fiscal or economic policies are improbable, the election result is expected to influence Israel's ties with Western allies and investors' views on Israel's judicial reform and policies in the West Bank and Gaza. Under the assumption of an opposition victory, which JPMorgan gives a 55 percent chance of occurring, the shekel might strengthen by 2 to 3 percent as worries about institutional reforms lessen. Conversely, a second term for Netanyahu, who has controlled Israeli politics for two decades, could lead to a 3 percent drop in the currency's value. A third possibility, a broad coalition and continued political uncertainty, would likely maintain the shekel's stability. JPMorgan has previously observed the shekel's sensitivity to institutional concerns, with its value dropping nearly 10 percent against the dollar between early 2023 and October 7, when Hamas attacked Israel. Despite the varying election outcomes, the bank maintains that the overall risk-reward remains balanced, considering Israel's robust technology sector, favorable external conditions, and the possibility that the Bank of Israel may resist excessive currency strengthening. The bank's analysts also noted that the current implied volatility in the foreign exchange market suggests only about a 1 percent movement around the election, which they consider low.",
  "summary": "The U.S. bank's analysts said the election result was likely to impact Israel's relations with its Western allies and the perceptions of international investors regarding Israel's judicial system reforms and policies in the West Bank and Gaza",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 2,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "Jerusalem Post",
        "title": "The world is watching Israel’s election while ignoring the Palestinian one - opinion",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/28/the-world-is-watching-israels-election-while-ignoring-the-palestinian",
        "published": "2026-08-28T22:12:16.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}