{
  "id": 3894219,
  "title": "SA braces for possible food price pressure as El Niño looms",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/28/sa-braces-for-possible-food-price-pressure-as-el-nino-looms",
  "topic": "business",
  "section": "Business",
  "published": "2026-08-28T05:00:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "IOL",
    "slug": "iol",
    "url": "https://iol.co.za/capetimes/news/2026-08-28-sa-braces-for-possible-food-price-pressure-as-el-nio-looms/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "South Africa anticipates potential food price increases as El Niño approaches next year. While a record maize harvest and better water reserves should prevent immediate food shortages, the climate pattern's impact on agricultural output could raise food prices. El Niño, characterized by warmer ocean waters in the Pacific, often brings hotter, drier conditions to southern Africa. South Africa last faced this during the 2023/24 summer, when drought and heat reduced maize production. The 2015/16 El Niño warned of the consequences of prolonged drought, forcing the country to import more grain. The main concern is that a poor 2026/27 harvest could make staple foods less affordable for low-income households. The El Niño forecast suggests a high risk of below-normal rainfall and drought for summer crops, particularly in the Free State, North West, and Mpumalanga, which produce about 82% of South Africa's commercial maize. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a more than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño event during the northern hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026/27. South Africa enters the season with a more favorable position than before the 2015/16 drought, thanks to two wet seasons that improved soil moisture, groundwater, and dam levels. The Crop Estimates Committee forecasts the record 2025/26 commercial summer grain and oilseed crop at 21.56 million tonnes, with the maize crop expected at 17.36 million tonnes, the largest on record. South Africa uses about 12 million tonnes of maize annually, and the harvest and carry-over stocks should cover domestic consumption and export about three million tonnes during the 2026/27 marketing year. The country is unlikely to require significant maize imports during 2026 or 2027, but may need to consider imports beyond 2027 if El Niño persists. Experts argue that open markets, rather than government intervention, are the best defense against future shortfalls. Efficient irrigation, rainwater harvesting, and precision use of resources can help limit losses for farmers. Livestock producers face a separate threat if dry weather damages grazing and raises feed costs. Healthy soils can reduce agricultural vulnerability, but cannot prevent drought or eliminate rainfall uncertainty.",
  "summary": "While South Africa's record maize harvest and improved water reserves provide immediate relief from food shortages, a strengthening El Niño threatens to disrupt agricultural output and raise food prices in 2027, particularly affecting low-income households.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}