{
  "id": 3838475,
  "title": "Brazil Presidential Poll: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in Statistical Tie",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/27/brazil-presidential-poll-lula-and-flavio-bolsonaro-in-statistical-tie",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-08-27T23:05:04.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "The Rio Times",
    "slug": "the-rio-times",
    "url": "https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-presidential-poll-lula-flavio-tie-2026/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The 2026 Brazilian presidential race is currently a statistical tie, according to a PoderData/Aya poll released on Thursday 27 August. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro are tied at 38% and 35% respectively in the first round, with a potential runoff vote showing Lula ahead at 45% and Bolsonaro at 44%. The PoderData/Aya survey, which interviewed 2,400 voters by telephone between 23-26 August, has a margin of error of two percentage points either way. This statistical tie is backed up by other recent polls, such as the Real Time Big Data institute, which found a 49% against Lula and 48% in favour, and the BTG Pactual/Nexus survey, which also showed a statistical tie. In Espírito Santo, Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula by just 1% in the first round and wins the runoff 48% to 42%. In Minas Gerais, Lula leads the first round at 39% and the runoff is statistically tied at 46% to 44%. Both men are rejected by 49% of voters in the PoderData/Aya survey, meaning nearly half of Brazilians say they would never vote for either man. Lula's government has a disapproval rating of 50% and an approval rating of 42%. The next round of surveys will determine if Lula's decline has stopped, as the election is scheduled for Sunday 4 October 2026, with a runoff on 25 October 2026 if needed.",
  "summary": "A PoderData/Aya poll puts Lula at 38% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 35% in Brazil’s first round, with a 45%-44% runoff: a statistical tie five weeks out. The post Brazil Presidential Poll: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in Statistical Tie appeared first on The Rio Times .",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}