{
  "id": 3543619,
  "title": "The Don’t-Mention-the-War Midterms Strategy",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/26/the-dont-mention-the-war-midterms-strategy",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-08-26T16:07:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "The Atlantic",
    "slug": "the-atlantic",
    "url": "https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/2026/08/trump-iran-war-midterms-sanctions/688412/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "For months, President Trump has struggled to end the conflict with Iran. The bombing campaign lost its impact, and supplies of American munitions dwindled. Diplomacy languished, with Iran's leaders refusing to end the protracted process and strengthen their control over the Strait of Hormuz. Even the present ceasefire, though uneasy, has not significantly reduced the cost of energy worldwide. Perplexed by their limited options, the Trump administration has shifted towards a prolonged strategy of economic pressure, pledging to impose sanctions until Iran's leaders are compelled to resume meaningful negotiations. However, this tactic might be ineffective if the U.S. fails to penalize countries that still engage with Iran, maintaining its economy functional—a task Trump has been reluctant to undertake, particularly against China, Russia, and North Korea, which has a strategic alliance with Tehran.\n\nIf this approach proves fruitless, the White House aims to shift focus away from the war, hoping that a slight decrease in gas prices will mitigate public discontent and enable Republicans to divert attention to more appealing subjects before the midterms. This strategy, designed to distract the public, would not alter the Middle East's current state: alliances have been strained, the U.S. military has been overextended, and Iran holds greater regional influence than it did at the conflict's inception, approximately six months ago. Despite this, it could enable Trump, a proponent of distraction, to concentrate on other priorities aimed at salvaging at least one chamber of Congress for his party in the upcoming elections.\n\nAt present, both parties' strategists believe Democrats are favored to gain control of the House. While the Senate map favors Republicans, the outlook remains uncertain. Trends have already worked against Republicans: historically, the party in power tends to fare better in midterms, and Trump supporters have become less inclined to vote when he is not on the ballot. The president's poor performance and declining poll numbers, even on the economy and immigration, his customary strong suits, may further hinder the GOP's prospects. Facing potential backlash, Republicans have largely avoided holding town halls this summer, which are often effective in engaging constituents. Some who have conducted gatherings have faced anger and tough questions about Iran, especially regarding the U.S.'s initial entry into the war.\n\nRepublicans have urged the White House to terminate the conflict and alleviate its detrimental effect on the nation's economy and their own reelection prospects. However, reaching a resolution has remained elusive. Trump's objectives for the conflict have never been clearly articulated and have fluctuated over time. Gone are the lofty promises of regime change or preventing Iran from developing nuclear capabilities. Now, privately, the president has told political allies that once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, he may declare victory and disengage. Yet, this too has proven challenging: Iran continues to threaten vessels traversing the strait and insists on charging tolls. Other regional nations have declared this unacceptable, asserting that the strait was always open and free before the war, though Trump has hesitated on whether or not he could tolerate such actions. The president announced yesterday that the last of Iran's mines had been removed from the channel, but a regional official stressed that even if true, Iran could still menace ships using small boats, handheld rocket launchers, and drones. Republicans have expressed their support for the White House's new economic pressure campaign, announced by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The administration hopes this strategy will create an economic chokehold, termed \"economic asphyxiation\" by Bessent, which could progressively resolve the conflict while keeping the issue out of the news cycle. (Trump's provocative threats towards Iran have consistently dominated the news cycle and hurt Republicans.) Some within the administration believe that emerging divisions within Tehran's leadership could facilitate negotiations. If the new sanctions prompt Iran to enter talks before November, a renewed diplomatic effort could benefit the markets and serve as a final push for Republicans. Trump has grown tired of the war and has been encouraged by aides to prioritize the economy to aid Republican candidates, but he has continued to downplay the nation's affordability issues, much to their chagrin. Although Trump remains furious over Iran's unwillingness to compromise, his aides have persuaded him to give the new plan a try. In some respects, this isn't a novel idea: Trump has employed an \"economic maximum pressure\" approach since his first term to compel Iran to abandon its nuclear program. However, intelligence agencies miscalculated Iran's resilience, as the regime appears willing to endure significant hardships, even at the cost of its own citizens' struggles, to maintain power. Additionally, this approach presents its own political risks. Should Iran remain unyielding, the pressure campaign might extend beyond the midterms, prolonging elevated prices. The U.S. military has not engaged in military action against Iran for weeks. This lull follows a consistent pattern of employing force to extract concessions from Iran.",
  "summary": "The shift to an economic pressure campaign could also push the conflict out of the minds of voters.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}