{
  "id": 3326468,
  "title": "Sberbank analysts put Russia’s chances of winning war against Ukraine at 7%, internal documents hacked by Black Mirror reveal",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/25/sberbank-analysts-put-russias-chances-of-winning-war-against-ukraine",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-08-25T18:50:01.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "The Insider",
    "slug": "the-insider",
    "url": "https://theins.press/en/news/296405"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Sberbank analysts have determined Russia's chances of winning the war against Ukraine to be only 7%, based on internal documents that have been hacked by the hacker group Black Mirror. The document, titled \"Scenarios for Achieving Peace in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict,\" outlines eight different scenarios for ending the war, with the 7% probability scenario involving a \"decisive Russian military advantage\" in the next 12-24 months. For this outcome, Russia would need a second wave of mobilization of at least 300,000-500,000 people, a significant increase in Russia's air fighting capacity, and breakthrough technology in autonomous drone swarms. Meanwhile, the document also outlines three other scenarios with lower probabilities, including \"Western exhaustion\" at 12%, which would involve Ukraine losing Western support and Russia securing certain concessions, and \"Trump deal\" at 32%, which would involve a frozen conflict with partial sanctions relief facilitated by Donald Trump.",
  "summary": "The Black Mirror hacker group has published ( 1 , 2 , 3 ) a Sberbank analytical memo outlining various hypothetical scenarios for and end to the war in Ukraine. The document, titled “Scenarios for Achieving Peace in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict,” is dated April 2026, and it contains data on the relative likelihood of all potential outcomes. Black Mirror claims that Sberbank CEO German Gref sent…",
  "key_points": [
    "Sberbank analysts estimate Russia's war-winning chances at 7%",
    "Internal documents hacked by Black Mirror reveal war scenarios",
    "7% scenario requires Russian military advantage in 12-24 months"
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 2,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "Ukrinform - Politics",
        "title": "West and Ukraine must change strategic dynamics with Russia — former NATO deputy assistant secretary general",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/25/west-and-ukraine-must-change-strategic-dynamics-with-russia-former",
        "published": "2026-08-25T19:58:00.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}