{
  "id": 3176708,
  "title": "Prediction: Eli Lilly Could Be One of the Biggest Winners of the Next Decade. Here’s Why.",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/23/prediction-eli-lilly-could-be-one-of-the-biggest-winners-of-the-next",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-08-23T16:00:11.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Yahoo Finance",
    "slug": "yahoo-finance",
    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/prediction-eli-lilly-could-one-160011402.html"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Eli Lilly (LLY) has reported one of the most impressive quarters in the history of Big Pharma. Revenue jumped 47.67% to $22.974 billion, with Mounjaro alone generating $9.943 billion. The stock has surged 77.52% over the past year and 16.36% year-to-date, trading near $1,263.92. However, the question remains whether Lilly can hit $1,750 by the end of 2027.\n\nThe stock has shown modest gains recently, up only 3.08% in the past week and 6.02% in the past month. This is attributed to falling realized prices despite increasing trading volume. Q2 realized prices fell 13%, and the addition of Mounjaro to China's National Reimbursement Drug List is expected to boost volumes while putting pressure on prices. Additionally, $2.78 billion in acquired IPR&D charges and an effective tax rate of 23.3% have made reported earnings noisier than the underlying business.\n\nThe consensus target for LLY is $1,310.90, slightly above its current trading price. Analysts have given the stock a high bullish sentiment of 79%. Our base-case model projects a one-year target of $1,463.40, a 15.5% upside, with a bull case of $1,689.64 and a bear case of $1,210.65. Confidence in this model is high at 0.9.\n\nTo reach $1,750 from its current price of $1,263.92, the stock would need to gain 38.4%. This would imply a forward P/E of 46x, compared to the base case of 40x, suggesting a need for 6x additional multiple expansion driven by continued earnings growth. Three key catalysts could propel Lilly to this price target. First, the FDA's approval of retatrutide, with Phase 3 data showing weight loss approaching levels seen with bariatric surgery, is expected in Q1 2027. Second, Foundayo, an oral GLP-1 drug, is under review in more than 40 countries, with a global rollout anticipated in 2027. Third, CEO David Ricks has stated that Lilly's future, after 150 years, has never been brighter.\n\nThe risks to this upside potential lie in any safety concerns raised by retatrutide or delays in Foundayo's international rollout. Should these issues arise, it could compress the multiple quickly. Currently, LLY's forward P/E of roughly 33x on a forward EPS of $38.39 may seem high, but with FY2026 revenue guidance at $85 to $87 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $35.50 to $36.50, the growth rate supports a premium valuation.\n\nShares are trading near their 52-week high of $1,292.65 and above the 52-week low of $689.88. Over the past decade, LLY has returned an impressive 1,735.24%. To reach the $1,750 target, three conditions must be met: a clean approval of retatrutide's Q1 2027 filing, accelerated international launches for Foundayo, and controlled price erosion in the US incretin market despite the surge in volume. While reaching this price point may be challenging, the outlined blueprint provides a clear path for Eli Lilly to achieve this milestone.",
  "summary": null,
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}