{
  "id": 280694,
  "title": "Kalshi and Polymarket Bets On Clinical Trials Criticized As 'Ghastly'",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/07/kalshi-and-polymarket-bets-on-clinical-trials-criticized-as-ghastly-280694",
  "topic": "culture",
  "section": "Culture",
  "published": "2026-08-07T21:00:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Slashdot",
    "slug": "slashdot",
    "url": "https://news.slashdot.org/story/26/08/07/1843210/kalshi-and-polymarket-bets-on-clinical-trials-criticized-as-ghastly"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Billions of dollars are traded every week on prediction market sites, where users bet on various topics ranging from movie reviews to elections to conflicts in the Middle East. However, the rise of these markets has raised ethical concerns, particularly when it comes to clinical trials. Kalshi, a prediction market company, claims that betting on clinical trials can provide valuable information about which drugs will receive approval and which trials will yield promising results. This information, in turn, could help investors decide which new drugs to fund. Kalshi's spokesman, Jack Such, argued that banning profiting from clinical trial failures would require addressing the far larger financial incentives present in the stock market, where short sellers have profited from such failures. While Kalshi sees itself as providing useful information to researchers, clinical trial researchers are skeptical. David Tsai, a biotech company clinical trials manager, launched an online petition to ban such betting, arguing that it threatens trust and integrity in biotechnology. Tsai expressed concerns that the prospect of betting could lead participants to manipulate trial results for financial gain. For instance, a pharmacist involved in a clinical trial for an oncology drug might adjust infusion rates or drug temperatures to influence the outcome based on the wager. Nicholas Zaorsky, a radiation oncology professor at the Mayo Clinic, agreed with Tsai, stating that prediction markets can interfere with life-saving drug advancements. He highlighted that financial incentives could directly impact trial integrity. Joshua Pederson, father of a 12-year-old cancer patient involved in a clinical trial, voiced strong opposition to such betting, deeming it \"ghastly\" and inappropriate for patients to root for trial failures to earn profits. Kalshi countered these concerns, arguing that its prediction markets could assist patients in tracking promising medical breakthroughs and clinical trials. The company's white paper, sponsored by Kalshi, emphasized the potential for an open, transparent dataset about trial probabilities to empower patients.",
  "summary": "An anonymous reader quotes a report from NPR: Billions of dollars are traded every week on the lightly regulated prediction market sites, where users bet on everything from movie reviews to elections to conflicts in the Middle East. Clinical trials are just the latest area where the industry's rapid growth is raising ethical questions. Kalshi claims such bets will provide a new source of…",
  "key_points": [
    "Kalshi and Polymarket enable betting on clinical trial outcomes.",
    "Critics label this practice as \"ghastly\" due to potential integrity threats.",
    "Patients and researchers oppose betting, fearing manipulation of trial results."
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": "https://urgent.news/ill/280694.png",
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}