{
  "id": 26948,
  "title": "Lisa D Cook: Economic outlook",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/07/31/lisa-d-cook-economic-outlook",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-07-31T09:31:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "BIS Central Bank Speeches",
    "slug": "bis-central-bank-speeches",
    "url": "https://www.bis.org/review/r260730r.htm"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Lisa D Cook, Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, addressed the Exchequer Club of Washington DC on July 15, 2026. The Federal Reserve's chief responsibility, according to Cook, is to restore price stability in the face of persistently high inflation. As a monetary policymaker, she emphasized that the challenge of maintaining price stability and maximum employment is at the forefront of her mind.\n\nCook referred to the most recent consumer price index and producer price index reports, which were softer than anticipated. Despite the softer numbers, they still indicated that the price index they target rose 3.7 percent over the past year, surpassing the 2 percent target by 1.7 percentage points. This is the first time in over five years that they have not reached their target.\n\nCook provided a broader outlook on the dual mandate, discussing recent developments in monetary policy. She referred to the outlook for employment and output a year ago, which was subdued. Many forecasters anticipated that the unemployment rate would rise due to uncertainty related to trade policy, and that inflation would remain above target but decline over time. However, inflation did not follow the expected downward trajectory by the end of 2026.\n\nAt the June 2025 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to leave rates unchanged. Cook explained her thinking at the time, comparing the decision-making process to a seesaw balancing risks to employment and inflation mandates. Last year, the seesaw was balanced, though tilted slightly towards employment risks, which she believed were a bit weightier.\n\nCook discussed the labor market, noting that the unemployment rate was 4.2 percent in June, consistent with the past year and the natural rate of unemployment. She highlighted that low job openings are causing challenges for certain groups, but international and state-level evidence suggests a stable labor market despite this environment. Cook also addressed concerns about AI affecting livelihoods, stating that most dire predictions about an AI job transition have not yet materialized.\n\nRegarding output, GDP growth in 2025 was 2.0 percent, with FOMC participants forecasting 2.2 percent growth for 2026, both surpassing last year's forecasts. Labor productivity has grown about 2.5 percent per year over the past two years, and the data center buildout has added to the economy. These developments point to less risk to the employment mandate.\n\nLastly, Cook addressed inflation, asserting that the current rate of annual inflation is near the highest since 2023. Despite tariff-related price increases subsiding, inflation has moved higher. Headline inflation for 2026 is expected to be about 1 percentage point higher than anticipated a year ago, while core inflation is also well above expectations.",
  "summary": "Speech by Ms Lisa D Cook, Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, at The Exchequer Club of Washington DC, Washington DC, 15 July 2026.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}