{
  "id": 266175,
  "title": "Euro surges as shocking US NFP reverses Fed September hike expectations",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/07/euro-surges-as-shocking-us-nfp-reverses-fed-september-hike",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-08-07T13:00:06.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "FXStreet",
    "slug": "fxstreet",
    "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-surges-as-shocking-us-nfp-reverses-fed-september-hike-expectations-202608071300"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The Euro (EUR) experienced a significant surge on Friday after a surprise US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report revealed a much weaker-than-anticipated job growth. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that US Nonfarm Payrolls declined by 23K in July, far below the market's expectations of an increase of 80K jobs. This stark contrast to previous months, which were revised sharply downward, led to substantial selling pressure on the US Dollar (USD), causing the EUR/USD exchange rate to rise to 1.1570.\n\nThe Unemployment Rate slightly decreased to 4.1% from 4.2%, while the Labor Force Participation Rate dropped to 61.4% from 61.5%. Moreover, annual Average Hourly Earnings growth slowed to 3.2% from a previously revised 3.4%, indicating a gradual cooling in the US labor market.\n\nInvestors now interpret these labor market indicators as signs that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may be less likely to implement a rate hike at the September meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase during the September meeting fell to 44%, down from 55% the previous day and 67% a week ago. Although the markets still anticipate at least one 25-basis-point rate hike before year-end, the likelihood has decreased considerably.\n\nIn Europe, Germany's economic data provided limited support for the Euro (EUR). Germany's Industrial Production rose by 0.2% in June, slightly above expectations, but declined from May's 0.7% gain. Additionally, Germany's Trade Balance surplus narrowed to €15.4B, falling below market expectations. The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its cautious stance after keeping interest rates unchanged during its latest meeting.\n\nTechnical analysis suggests that EUR/USD is trading at 1.1574, surpassing both the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1530 and the 200-period SMA at 1.1494. The Relative Strength Index (14) has entered overbought territory near 80, suggesting the potential for short-term consolidation rather than a sustained trend. Support levels are identified at 1.1560, 1.1530, 1.1507, 1.1500, and 1.1494, while the absence of clear resistance presents an opportunity for fresh buying interest if the pair continues to decline towards these supports.",
  "summary": "Euro surged 0.43% on Friday as the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed a much weaker than expected decline of 23K jobs in July, compared with market expectations of an increase of 80K jobs. The sharp deterioration in payroll growth led to a downward revision of 103K jobs in total, with June payrolls revised down from 57K to 20K and May from 129K to 63K. The US Dollar (USD) weakened sharply following the release, as investors reduced bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would tighten monetary policy, with the chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September meeting falling to just 44%. The Euro (EUR) traded around 1.1570, extending its advance above key moving averages, while European economic data provided limited support.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}