{
  "id": 2433404,
  "title": "Los fundamentales mantendrán el brillo del oro",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/21/los-fundamentales-mantendran-el-brillo-del-oro",
  "topic": "business",
  "section": "Business",
  "published": "2026-08-21T18:46:07.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Expansion ES",
    "slug": "expansion-es",
    "url": "https://www.expansion.com/opinion/2026/08/21/6a888dc5468aeb43308b4589.html"
  },
  "original_language": "es",
  "account": "The Federal Reserve shows no signs of tightening its monetary policy, which should facilitate gold's upward trend. The first half of the year was exceptionally volatile for the commodities market, particularly for gold. It surged to over $5,400 per ounce by the end of January, before falling to around $4,000 by the end of June. Vontobel expects prices to stay around current levels during the third quarter. However, the bullish potential outweighs the bearish risks for this summer and autumn. Since March, the determinants of gold prices have shifted from the narrative of fiat currencies losing value to sensitivity to real interest rates, and gold has again shown a strong inverse relationship with expectations of US reference interest rates. This can be illustrated by the total holdings of gold ETFs, which reached a maximum of 100.9 million ounces around the start of the conflict in Iran, but have since declined by 4.5%, settling at levels not seen since September 2025. Withdrawals from gold ETFs have been the main driver of the recent price correction. Geopolitical risks and ongoing central bank purchases still provide a solid floor for prices, but these factors are currently being overshadowed by market attention to monetary policy. The Federal Reserve's June press conference was surprisingly restrictive, with the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh already mentioned. Consequently, the US dollar appreciated against all currencies, adding further pressure on gold. We believe that with considerably lower oil prices compared to two months ago and weak labor market data, the Fed shows no signs of adopting a restrictive tone in its upcoming meetings and decisions. Therefore, we believe gold should have found a floor. Thus, we maintain a constructive view on gold in the medium term. The structural pillars supporting the bullish gold market remain firmly intact: ongoing central bank reserve diversification; strong physical demand from Asia; concerns over high sovereign debt levels; and sustained demand for portfolio diversification. That said, it is unlikely that these favorable factors will dominate while global monetary policy remains restrictive. In our view, the next significant catalyst for gold is likely to come from the Federal Reserve. Once markets gain confidence that 2026 will not mark the start of a new tightening cycle, gold inflows into ETFs should become favorable once again, creating conditions for the metal to break its current range and resume its long-term bullish trend. Our outlook on silver is comparatively more cautious. Since June, we have preferred to approach silver from a downside bias and expect it to remain neutral or mildly bullish in the coming months. We believe the silver market is approaching a point of inflection. After five consecutive years of deficit, it is probable that the market will return to surplus from next year, and our judgment is that prices are beginning to reflect this fundamental change. The dual role of silver as a precious metal and an industrial metal is currently generating adverse factors on both fronts. As a precious metal, silver continues to face the same challenges as gold: prolonged high interest rates and persistent ETF outflows. At the same time, the prospects for its industrial demand are increasingly unfavorable. With its greater volatility and dual exposure to monetary and industrial cycles, silver is likely to remain more vulnerable than gold in a risk-averse environment. Industrial metals have shown significant resilience this year, especially given the impact of a stronger US dollar. Our view is that the copper price trend is being driven by two dominant themes: artificial intelligence and US import tariffs. A significant portion of the premium for copper prices over production costs still reflects investors' belief that demand will surge in the coming years. This will be due to the construction of data centers, the expansion of the electric grid, and sustained investment in renewable energy. We believe the market currently assigns an overly optimistic value to the future demand for copper derived from AI investment. However, as long as investors maintain their bullish stance and remain committed to the long-term demand narrative, it is unlikely that copper prices will experience a significant correction. This is especially significant given that global copper inventories are currently far from adjusted. Much of the apparent excess is concentrated in the United States, where reserves have significantly increased in the past 12 months, awaiting a potential tariff decision. Consequently, US trade policy is likely to determine the next major move in copper.",
  "summary": "La Fed no tiene motivos para endurecer su política monetaria, lo que debería facilitar que el oro retome la tendencia alcista de fondo. Leer",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}