{
  "id": 2375637,
  "title": "Super El Niño could lead to mega CO2 emissions from Indonesian fires",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/21/super-el-nino-could-lead-to-mega-co2-emissions-from-indonesian-fires",
  "topic": "science",
  "section": "Science",
  "published": "2026-08-21T12:45:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "New Scientist",
    "slug": "new-scientist",
    "url": "https://www.newscientist.com/article/2585948-super-el-nino-could-lead-to-mega-co2-emissions-from-indonesian-fires/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The building Super El Niño in 2026 could result in catastrophic CO2 emissions from Indonesian fires, potentially surpassing the intensity of previous strong El Niños, according to forecasts from the UK Met Office. The fire emissions during the 1997 and 2015 El Niño years were estimated at 2.5 gigatonnes and 1.5 gigatonnes of CO2 respectively, comparable to a third of annual fossil fuel emissions at the time. If the Super El Niño continues to intensify, it may lead to similar emission totals. El Niños are typically characterized by sea surface temperatures 0.5°C above normal in a specific region of the Pacific, but the current forecast predicts temperatures that could exceed 3°C around October. Indonesia has been experiencing wildfires on the island of Borneo and in the provinces of West and Central Kalimantan, causing severe smoke pollution. School closures have been reported, and smoke levels are unprecedented for this time of year. Ground-based sensors have detected smoke levels previously only observed during El Niño years. Peat fires are challenging to extinguish as they can burn underground, and the region's thick layers of peat, built up over millennia, store vast amounts of carbon. When forests are cleared, the peat dries out, making it more susceptible to fires during hot, dry conditions. The Super El Niño is expected to bring intense fires in the Amazon and parts of North America, as well as various weather impacts worldwide, such as heat, drought, increased rainfall, and flooding in different regions. While the effects on Europe are uncertain, there may be more rainfall and storminess in the UK during the autumn. The long-term impact of global heating on the likelihood of stronger El Niños remains unclear, but the amplified impacts of El Niños during a hotter world are evident.",
  "summary": "Intense fires are already burning in Indonesia, and there could be much worse to come as the Super El Niño ramps up",
  "key_points": [
    "Super El Niño forecasted for 2026 could cause extreme CO2 emissions from Indonesian fires.",
    "1997 and 2015 El Niño fires emitted 2.5 gigatonnes and 1.5 gigatonnes of CO2 respectively."
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}